In 2016, the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” national new energy vehicle focused on special projects, and proposed to substantially increase the proportion of new energy vehicles and new energy applications, and promote green and low-carbon industries such as new energy vehicles, new energy, and energy conservation and environmental protection to become pillar industries. With the promotion of new energy vehicles and charging pile subsidy policies and other related promotion policies successively promulgated by the state and local governments, China’s electric vehicle production and use have seen significant growth over the past few years.

However, the driving factors for the rapid development of new energy vehicles are not only the subsidies and promotion of central and local governments. Recently, Aikey Consulting conducted research on the reasons for promoting the early adoption of electric vehicles, and summarized and analyzed the large-scale promotion of electric vehicles. key step. The study found that the most important driving factor for the early adoption of electric vehicles is that, from the perspective of ownership structure, electric vehicles are more cost-competitive than internal combustion vehicles.

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There are many factors that promote the popularization and development of electric vehicles. The focus of this study is to analyze the three factors of the cost competitiveness of new energy vehicles, the development of public charging infrastructure, and the diversity of electric vehicles.

New energy vehicle cost competitiveness

We know that the total cost of owning a car (TCO) includes the cost of buying a car and the cost of use. The cost of use is mainly fuel and maintenance costs. Compared to the fuel car, the use cost of an electric car will be relatively lower.

At present, the purchase price of electric vehicles is relatively higher than that of fuel vehicles, but the reduction of the use cost means that when the specific kilometers per year are used, the total cost (TCO) of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is the same, we can put this specific The number of kilometers is defined as the mileage balance point, and the lower the mileage balance point, the more competitive the electric vehicle will be.

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From the above analysis, we understand that the lower the mileage balance point, the higher the market share of electric vehicles in the new car sales market. Therefore, as can be seen from the above figure, in the early electric vehicle market, when the mileage balance point was lower than 10,000kms per year, it was more easily accepted by consumers.

In countries such as Norway and Denmark, the total cost of electric vehicles is far lower than the total cost of fuel vehicles due to the government's large subsidies and promotion, so that the mileage balance can even be less than 0, prompting consumers to quickly accept electric vehicles. .

As the world’s largest electric vehicle market, China’s low-cost large-scale electric vehicle production is likely to make China the world’s leading supplier of electric vehicles, breaking the current state of the world’s electric vehicle market. For example, in 2017, China produced approximately 700,000 electric vehicles, which produced more than half of the world's electric vehicles, of which the BAIC EC series was 33% cheaper than the Nissan Venucia Leaf, and BAIC is currently increasing its exposure to the United States and Europe. Export.

Complete public charging infrastructure

The study found that although public infrastructure is a very important factor, it seems that there is no significant effect on the acceptance of early electric vehicles.

Aiyikai analyzed the relationship between the public infrastructure in the 12 countries and the follow-up electric vehicle market share (after raising the public infrastructure for one to two years) and found that there is no significant increase in investment in public charging infrastructure. Electric vehicle market share.

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In fact, the reason is very simple. Although charging is currently a major pain point for electric cars, this drawback is also relative. As far as the current battery life of electric vehicles is concerned, it has far exceeded the average distance that users travel every day. That is, even if it takes a long time, most users still choose to charge at home. This also shows that early receivers of electric cars are likely to be dual-car family or short-distance users, and can be charged at home.

For those consumers who cannot obtain home recharging or have higher requirements for battery life, electric vehicle mileage is still a major pain point.

The diversity of electric cars

The diversity of electric vehicles also has a great influence on future demand for electric vehicles. More and more automakers plan to increase the types of electric vehicles so that consumers can have more choices. This will increase the competition and production scale of electric vehicles, coupled with the continuous decline in battery costs, the competitiveness of electric vehicles will be greatly enhanced.

The increase in the number of electric vehicles indicates that consumers are more likely to find the models that are suitable for them, and that consumer satisfaction has increased, and word of mouth recommendation will attract more consumers to buy.

Overall, the price factor of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is the key influence of the large-scale promotion of electric vehicles. The decline in prices and the increasingly convenient infrastructure means that electric vehicles are approaching the critical point of sharp increase in demand.

This is a very important turning point for automakers. Manufacturers need to focus more on innovation and expand battery production to reduce the cost of electric vehicles. Because with the gradual increase in the scale of electric vehicles, the country's subsidy is also declining, which means that the market for electric vehicles and the fuel car market will further increase competition.

In the future, in the electric vehicle market, successful automakers will need to adopt economies of scale, optimize production systems, and reduce management costs in order to reduce the cost of electric vehicles and make electric vehicles competitive on TCO. Clear and clear value positioning is also a particular need for EV automobile manufacturers to improve, and the most important is to win market share based on superior design, experience, customer service, quality, charging, and battery storage solutions. We can fully consider the needs of our customers and grasp opportunities related to solutions such as home charging, public charging and change points.




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