Bearing steel market outlook is promising in 2014

In the past 2013, the market for special steels such as spring steel, bearing steel, tool and die steel, valve steel, and gear steel in the East China region remained stable and the prices did not fluctuate sharply and ups and downs, although they were less than expected by the operators. The special steel market of the year expressed its expectation that it was better than 2013.

According to the information obtained by some operators and industry insiders in the market research, the operating characteristics of the special steel market in East China in 2013 showed that the market was generally stable, the demand was not weakened, there was excess supply, and the price was steadily falling. The changes in the prices of special steel markets in Shanghai, Wuxi, Yantai and other regions confirm this operating characteristic.

In early 2013, the highest price of 60Si2Mn spring steel (?50mm) on the Shanghai market was 7900 yuan/ton, and by mid-December, it dropped to 7700 yuan/ton, only down 200 yuan/ton; GCr15 bearing steel (heat) The price of (50mm) dropped from 7,300 yuan/ton to 7,100 yuan/ton, and also dropped by 200 yuan/ton. The price of Cr12MoV mold steel decreased from 15,100 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of free cutting steel (6.5mm-12mm) on the Wuxi market dropped by RMB 250/ton from the highest of RMB 8800/ton at the beginning of the year to RMB 8550/ton; the valve steel on the Yantai market was the highest (?5.0mm to 5.9mm) The price of 45,000 yuan / ton, to the end of the year is still maintained at 45,000 yuan / ton, no change.

In other major cities in East China, the market for special steels such as spring steel, bearing steel, tool and die steel, and valve steel was generally stable. Compared with the prices from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the prices of the special steels fell slightly, but the margins were modest. Basically normal, most of them are supplied according to the order of end users. Inventory is controlled within a reasonable range, so that inventory is kept low, inventory is reduced, capital expenditure for inventory is reduced, operating costs are reduced, and price fluctuations are largely constrained.

From the situation in which some operators engaged in special steels provided feedback during sales, in 2013, the downstream end-users did not experience much change in demand for special steels. The demand did not decrease and the growth rate was limited. However, there was no increase in output of steel mills, and the supply was still greater than Demand, and therefore lack of support for price increases. In 2013, the mechanical manufacturing industry of the main users of special steels such as spring steel, bearing steel, tool and die steel, and valve steel, was characterized by stable operation, slow recovery, moderate growth, and steady development; second, adjustment, industry The structure will continue to adjust in the expected direction. Third, it will be promoted to innovation, the integration of the two will be integrated, and the green development will be upgraded with new progress. The fourth one will be reduced. The rate of profit will slow down due to slowing demand, overcapacity, rising costs, and downward pressure on prices. This basic operating characteristic of the machinery industry determines that the demand for special steel also reflects "steadiness" and does not diminish.

From the perspective of the growth rate of industrial added value in East China, the demand for special steel is also confirmed. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the growth rate of industrial added value in various regions (November 2013), the national total increase rate is 10%, while the growth rate of many cities in East China exceeds the national growth rate, for example, the growth rate in Jiangsu is 11.6. %, Anhui, 14.4%, Fujian, 13.4%, Jiangxi, 13.2%, Shandong, 11.6%, all faster than the national growth rate; only Shanghai and Zhejiang, slightly lower than the growth rate of 8.3% and 7.9%. It can be seen that the growth rate of industrial added value in East China is relatively high, which has stimulated the demand for special steel and has become a major factor supporting the stability of the special steel market in East China in 2013.

East China is one of the manufacturing hubs of the country. The industries of automobile, shipbuilding, machinery, and construction in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are relatively large. This year, the development momentum of these industries is relatively good, driving the sustainable development of the local economy. In the third quarter, the GDP growth rate of some provinces and cities in East China was larger. According to statistics, the largest total GDP in the first three quarters of this year was Guangdong Province, with 441.147 billion yuan; Jiangsu ranked second with 419.343 billion yuan. Anhui's GDP growth rate was 10.7% in the first three quarters, 10.6% in Jiangxi, 9.6% in Jiangsu and Shandong, and 8.3% in Zhejiang. The growth rate exceeded the country's growth rate of 7.7% in the first three quarters. This is inseparable from the production and sales of major manufacturing industries in East China, and the demand for special steel such as spring steel, bearing steel, tool and die steel, and valve steel is relatively strong.

Including East China, the machinery manufacturing industry in the country recently showed a recovery trend, which is also a trend that supports the stabilization of the special steel market and the steady rise in prices. In November of this year, the total sales volume of key companies in China's excavator industry was 8,004 units, an increase of 7.5% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. Of which, domestic sales were 7,576 units, an increase of 28.8% year-on-year, continuing the higher growth rate since August; the year-on-year growth of large excavator sales was particularly significant. In November, excavator sales were still lower than 8,741, 14,426 and 8,908 units in the same period of 2009, 2010 and 2011. The year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales is expected to remain high.

The railway locomotive manufacturing industry with a large consumption of special steel is driven by the rapid development of railway construction and urban rail transit construction in various regions, and the output of locomotives and vehicles has increased significantly, drawing the demand for special steel such as spring steel and bearing steel. In November this year, the output of railway locomotives was 215, which was a year-on-year increase of 82%; the output of railway wagons was 8001, an increase of 269% year-on-year.

In addition, the strong development momentum of the automobile manufacturing industry has significantly increased the demand for special steel. According to the statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2013, automobile production and sales showed steady growth, with monthly production and sales innovation records; from January to November, both automobile production and sales exceeded last year's full year, and the year-on-year increase continued to rebound from the previous month. In November, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2,134,300 and 204,390, respectively, an increase of 11.39% and 5.75% from the previous month and 21.17% and 14.12% respectively from the same period of last year. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles reached 98.93 million vehicles and 1.86 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 14.34% and 13.53% year-on-year.

As the production and sales of downstream manufacturing industries maintained a good momentum, the strength of demand for special steels has not only not weakened, but has continued to increase. This has been the main factor supporting the steady and strong prices of the special steel market in East China this year.

Regarding the trend of the special steel market in East China in 2014, some operators and industry insiders expressed their expectation that it will be better than 2013. Judging from the information passed at the recent Third Plenary Session, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Central Urbanization Conference, China’s economy will continue to maintain its momentum of steady growth next year. The meeting proposed that efforts be made to release effective demand and give full play to the basic role of consumption. The key role of investment and the supporting role of exports are to control the “troika” that drives growth in consumption, investment, and external demand. The Central Urbanization Working Conference clearly defined the six major tasks that need to be completed to promote urbanization in the future. According to experts’ estimation, the capital investment and financing needs of China’s urbanization will reach 25 trillion yuan in the next three years, which will drive infrastructure construction around the country and will also stimulate the demand for construction machinery. It will also pull spring steel, gear steel, and bearing steel. Tooling steel needs.

People in the industry believe that the construction of infrastructure in East China will be accelerated in 2014. Increasing the number of construction projects will increase the demand for construction machinery and equipment. Whether it is the construction of affordable housing or the construction of transportation in the process of urbanization, as well as the mechanization of agriculture, it can bring mechanical action to mechanical manufacturers. With the promotion of new urbanization, the construction machinery industry will usher in the spring.

According to the prediction of the relevant person of China National Machinery Industry Federation, in 2014, the machinery industry is expected to continue to maintain a relatively stable growth with little increase. It is expected that the growth rate of production and sales will be between 10% and 15%, and the profit growth will be around 10%. The increase is estimated to be between 5% and 10%. The demand for high-end machine tools, robots and automatic production lines will increase; the construction machinery market will recover, and the large-scale high-end agricultural machinery products market will remain prosperous.

Manufacturers in the eastern and eastern China explore the “replacement of robots” and “robot replacement workers”. The trend of digitalization, intelligentization, automation to increase production efficiency, and hedging labor costs are on the rise. The demand for high-end equipment will be evident in the future. Faster than traditional mechanical products.

From this point of view, the special steel market such as spring steel, bearing steel, tool and die steel, valve steel and gear steel in East China will develop steadily in 2014, and the market prospects are promising.