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The price of raw materials, especially ethylene glycol (MEG), may continue to maintain its upward trend in the first half of the year because of tight supply. According to a JP Morgan analyst report, the Beijing Olympics will boost demand for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and bottled water and sportswear polyester. The removal of China’s quota on European textile exports will stimulate demand growth, but the impact will be limited.
Developing countries such as China, India and Indonesia will drive demand for polyesters as they account for 63% of global use, and these markets are expected to continue to grow at a rate of 11.4%/year, while developed countries such as the United States and Europe Regional demand growth was only 3.3%/year. In 2008, global demand for polyester will increase by 8% to 48.5 million tons. On the other hand, capacity growth will be only 5.6%, and only 2.2 million tons of China's capacity will be put into operation. He added that the profitability of the polyester industry in 2008 was estimated to increase to US$260/tonne (177 euros/ton), and the profit rate in 2007 was US$220/tonne. Replacement cotton is expected to remain high prices, and supply will decline. Taiwan's polyester company, Far East Textile Company, said demand for polyester is still very strong. Orders were stable in the first half of the year and analysts at Goldman Sachs expressed with confidence that the profit margin of the polyester industry will continue.
The strong profit margin of ethylene glycol will also support polyester prices. It is expected that the gross profit of ethylene glycol in the first quarter of this year may reach US$800/ton, based on the ethylene cost of US$1300/ton, and the previous gross profit is expected to be US$550/ton.
Taiwanese companies such as South Asia Plastics, Asia's largest ethylene glycol producer, Far East Textile and Dongfang Lian Chemicals will benefit from high oil prices and strong demand for polyesters. Market for sale.
According to reports, analysts on Friday predict that global demand for polyester is expected to maintain rapid growth and continue to grow, thanks to the Beijing Olympics and Europe's lifting of textile quotas for China, and the lack of new production capacity.
April 14, 2021