Oil prices "double drop" fear of stimulating the automotive market

Since June 9, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen by 530 yuan and 510 yuan per ton respectively. The retail prices of gasoline No. 90 and diesel No. 0 have dropped by 0.39 yuan and 0.44 yuan per liter respectively. The price reduction of refined oil products was the highest since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism, and was the only “two-pronged decline”. The domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel returned to the position at the beginning of last year.

Some industry insiders anticipate that the refined oil price will be lowered. On the one hand, the increase in the CPI in June will be appropriately lowered by about 0.14 percentage points, which will help to control inflation. On the other hand, for the auto market which is currently at a recovery point, the price of oil will be lowered. Together with other favorable factors, it will stimulate the market to accelerate recovery.

However, there are also industry analysts, the most important factor affecting the domestic auto market is still the economic downturn and the auto market's subsidy policy, the rise and fall in gasoline prices is not a direct factor in the auto market. Now that the car race has a much lower sensitivity to gasoline prices than before, the rise and fall in the price of a few cents in oil prices has a much smaller impact on consumers than the overall economic situation. From the perspective of long-term impact, the current price adjustment will have little impact on the overall operation of the auto market. Consumers' expectations for upward movement of oil prices will be stronger. Without major stimulus policies, the auto market will also develop according to the traditional laws. Although the recent oil price is no longer a “stumbling block”, factors such as rising prices, rising labor costs, and stock market shocks have made everyone very cautious when buying a car. The auto market still lacks upward momentum.

While everyone is discussing whether the “special” bailout policy in the auto market will be introduced, the central bank has also changed its monetary policy of lowering the reserve requirement ratio. Since June 8th, the central bank lowered the one-year benchmark deposit and lending rates of financial institutions. 0.25 percentage points. The central bank’s razor-sharp pursuit of interest rates is obvious, and it is hoped that this move will help the Chinese economy, including the auto industry, recover from relatively low-speed growth to relatively high-speed growth.

The interest rate cut by the central bank is undoubtedly a positive sign for car dealers, indicating that the country has started to loosen credit, which means that dealers can obtain funds more easily than before. However, people in the industry generally bearish on the positive impact of this interest rate cut on the auto market.

At present, the financial pressure of many dealers is too great, and the deadline for manufacturers to ask for payment has not been loosened. Interest rate cuts can temporarily relieve the pressure on dealers' loan costs. However, if the sales situation does not improve, it will directly affect the speed of capital turnover. Therefore, the pressure on auto dealers' capital chain cannot be effectively mitigated. The dealers are bound to take advantage of the opportunity to cut interest rates and panic, and this will only lead to a stronger market price war.

Although in theory, because the interest rate cut can make the loan cost of auto consumption credit lower, in order to attract consumers to use consumer credit business, the auto loan market has gained more emboldened. However, many people in the industry believe that the current rate cut by the central bank has little effect on the auto loan market. At present, the proportion of consumers buying cars through loans is not high, plus the rate of interest rate cuts is not high, which makes the impact of adjustment of interest rates is very small. The enthusiasm of most consumers for loan purchases is not high, and it is thought that this kind of money in the interest rate reduction province is far less than that of car dealers.