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In 2012, the year-end Chinese auto market drew to a close. Looking back at last year’s auto market, it was a climax, with production and sales continuing to remain the world’s number one, but with the rapid growth gradually declining; the controversy continued to limit the purchase policy; the Japanese car encountered “Waterlooâ€; the car recall entered a substantive stage ... ... from which we Seven “key words†were selected, hoping to take stock of the 2012 auto market and outline some of the trajectories for the healthy development of the Chinese auto industry.
Keyword 1: Micro-growth
Bid farewell to the rapid growth of the past few years, China's auto market is entering the stage of micro-growth. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales in the first 11 months of 2012 were 17.4829 million vehicles and 17.4932 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 4.5% and 4% over the same period of 2011. According to the average growth rate, China's auto production and sales may exceed 19 million vehicles in 2012, let us wait and see.
Since 2001, the average annual growth rate of production and sales in the Chinese automotive market has exceeded 20%, and it has grown from 2 million to more than 18 million in just 10 years or so. This kind of growth rate is rarely seen in the history of the world’s automotive industry. However, since 2011, the growth rate of China's auto market has slowed down, and the sales volume has grown by only 2.45%. Industry experts said that this kind of micro-growth will become the norm in the future development of China's auto market.
Keywords II: Restrictions
After China's automobile market experienced explosive growth, some long-standing contradictions have gradually emerged. Urban congestion is an obvious example. In the face of more and more vehicles, many cities are forced to adopt restrictions on purchases. After Shanghai and Beijing, last year, Guangzhou City also introduced a restriction policy, hoping to ease the growing traffic congestion. With the increase in car ownership, purchase restrictions are likely to become more and more options for governance congestion in big cities.
There is no doubt that restriction will have an adverse effect on the growing Chinese auto industry. However, we should also see that the restriction of purchase reflects the current situation of the unbalanced development of China's auto industry. While the number of car ownership has soared, the quality of road construction, parking facilities and other hardware facilities as well as the culture of civilized vehicles have not been correspondingly improved. This is also a problem we will face for a long time after we enter the automobile society.
Keywords three: inventory
Large inventory pressure has become a common problem faced by many car dealers this year. Due to the slowdown in market growth, declining demand, and the impact of manufacturers on speeding up the expansion of the network layout, automobile dealers generally have a problem of large inventory, and “price war†has become the dealer’s choice to get out of trouble. According to a national inventory survey of dealers in the auto market, in October 2012, more than 80% of dealers had an average inventory of more than 1.5 months, and some even reached 2.5 months.
Compared with previous years, the high inventory of dealers in 2012 is also related to the sluggish European auto market. Affected by the European debt crisis, the demand for European cars has dropped for several consecutive months. Many transnational auto companies have suffered serious losses. In order to shift the pressure on the European market, they have chosen to increase the supply of Chinese distributors, which has further increased Inventory pressure. An intuitive manifestation is that more and more "price wars" have fallen by several hundred thousand yuan at the end of the year.
Key Words Four: Boycott
Since 2012, due to multiple factors, Japanese cars have encountered “Waterloo†in the Chinese market. In October, the market share of Japanese cars once fell to a historical low of 7.6%. It is understood that although the sales volume of the tandem car began to slowly pick up in late 2012, it is very difficult to recover to the previous level. Some consumers and dealers are not very confident about the Japanese car's prospects.
In fact, there is another reason why Chinese consumers boycott Japanese cars. Compared with German cars and American cars, Japanese cars have a slower pace of product replacement and new technology investment in the Chinese market. The competitiveness is gradually declining. This also shows from another side that if a multinational car company wants to gain a firm foothold in the Chinese market, it must put in more competitive products, otherwise it will be difficult to gain the trust of consumers for a long time.
Key words five: recall new regulations
For many consumers, the "Defective Automobile Product Recall Management Regulations" promulgated by the State Council on October 30, 2012 is encouraging. According to the new regulations, the illegal actions for the recall of defective automobile products by automakers not only increase the amount of fines, but also increase the penalties for revoking administrative licenses.
The recall, which has become a customary system in the developed countries of the automotive industry, has repeatedly encountered problems in the automotive market in China. In particular, due to the imperfect recall system, some multinational car companies have “ignored†the Chinese market while recalling the world, seriously damaging the interests of consumers. Industry experts said that the recall of the new regulations will help regulate the automotive consumer market and promote the healthy development of the Chinese auto industry.
Key word six: own brand
In 2012, for Chinese auto brands, it is a year worth remembering. The Hongqi H7 model launched by FAW Group has filled the blank of the independent brand in the domestic high-end car market; GAC Group and Chery Group have signed a cooperation framework agreement, and two independent brands form a strategic alliance.
At the same time, the pressure and challenges faced by independent brands have also increased. In the near future, the main problems faced by the development of self-owned brands are still the downward pressure on the prices of joint venture brands, and the lack of their own R&D capabilities in the mid-market. Li Jun, chairman of the International Society of Automotive Engineers, said that the future of China's own brands can't stay at the low end of the manufacturing industry, and competition based on low prices is not sustainable. What is gratifying is that in recent years, some independent brands including Great Wall Motor have achieved good results by relying on independent innovation and market.
Key words: groping
Exploring the development of new energy vehicles in China in 2012 may be more appropriate. Although the State Council has issued the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", the industry's debate on the development of new energy vehicles continues. For example, are new energy vehicles starting from the high end or are they encouraging multi-level development to include low-speed electric vehicles? Moving ahead in the exploration will be a major feature of the future development of China's new energy vehicles.
Despite the controversy, the consensus in the industry is that the world auto industry has entered a stage of “low carbonization.†The coordinated development between the automobile industry and resources, the environment, and society is becoming more and more important, and this is also our country. The subject that the automotive industry must actively face.
October 21, 2024