The growth rate of production and sales of China's machinery industry is expected to be about 18% this year

“In 2011, the growth rate of China’s machinery industry’s major economic indicators was significantly lower than that of 2010, but overall growth was rapid. It is expected that the growth rate will be stable in 2012, and the growth rate of production and sales will be approximately 18%. The growth rate will continue to fall, but the risk of hard landing can be basically eliminated. "Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, recalled the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2011 and looked forward to the trend in 2012.

In 2011, the output value and profit of the machinery industry increased, and the growth rate decreased. The data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2011, the industrial added value of the machinery industry increased by 15.1% over 2010, and the growth rate dropped by 6%. In the first few years in recent years, it was lower than the industry during the same period. Average growth rate. In 2011, the total output value of the machinery industry was 16.8871 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.06% from 2010, and the growth rate fell 8.87%.

In 2011, the total profit of the machinery industry was 1.2013 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.14% over 2010, but it was significantly lower than the average increase of 25.35% for industrial enterprises above designated size in the country. The growth rate dropped by 34.46%. The main reason is that the financial costs, labor, and upstream supply costs have risen rapidly, with labor costs increasing by about 15% year-on-year.

In 2011, the orders of key enterprises increased by 6.44%, which was a drop of nearly 25% compared with the increase of 31.4 in the same period of 2010. The annual fixed asset investment was 2.7846 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.49% year-on-year. At the end of 2010, the original value of fixed assets was 4 trillion yuan, of which the net value was 2.5 trillion yuan. In 2011, investment was excessively prone to extension, production capacity expanded too quickly, and the contradiction between supply and demand was intensifying. This was another important reason for the decline in profit margins.

Structural adjustments accelerate the upgrading of high-end power equipment. The proportion of clean energy power generation equipment in the total output of power generation equipment increased from 30.9% in 2010 to 32.9% in 2011. It is digesting and absorbing AP1000 third generation nuclear power technology; independently innovating 1 million kilowatts of hydropower equipment, 600,000 kilowatts of circulating fluidized bed boilers, 5MW and 6MW wind power equipment. The UHV AC 1 million volt power transmission test demonstration line expansion equipment has been delivered, the follow-up project of the UHV DC project has begun, the localization level of equipment has been improved, and the development of ±1100 kV DC power transmission equipment and smart grid equipment has begun.

Large-scale heavy mining equipment. It has developed 18,500 tons of free-forging hydraulic presses, 30,000 tons of single-cylinder die forging hydraulic presses, 300 tons of 400-ton electric wheel dump trucks, and 14.93 meters of ultra-large muddy water pressure-balanced tunnel boring machines.

Domestic natural gas long-distance pipeline pressure station equipment. A complete set of pressurizing equipment such as 20,000-kilowatt-class compressors, drive motors, frequency converters and fully-welded pipeline valves for gas pipelines that have previously been imported has been developed and will be installed in the West-East Gas Pipeline Project.

In 2011, the output of CNC machine tools increased by 20.6% year-on-year, which was 5% higher than that of the Jinqi machine tool. The proportion of the former in the latter increased from 28% in 2010 to 30% in 2011.

The share of local Chinese companies in the cultural office equipment market has increased from 12% in 2010 to 14% in 2011.

Accelerate the localization of key basic components. A multi-billion yuan investment in high-end hydraulic components began construction; high-performance silicon pressure sensors and pressure transmitters achieved breakthroughs in independent innovation; after 4 years of industrial operation, graphite seals made in domestic nuclear power plants were ready for mass production; High- and medium-pressure rotors of 10,000 kilowatts and above are imported with 18.4% of rotors, 36% of low-pressure rotors, and 21% of generator shafts. However, 73 million kilowatts of high- and medium-pressure rotors are imported at 73%, low-pressure rotors are imported at 54%, and generator shafts are imported at 67%.

Regional economic restructuring. In 2011, the proportion of the output value of the machinery industry in the central and western regions increased by 1.49% and 0.27%, respectively, while that in the eastern region decreased by 1.77%, as shown in Table 1.

In addition, private enterprises account for about 50% of the output value and profits of the machinery industry, and exports account for more than 30%. Its development speed is higher than the industry average speed of 10%.

Imports accelerated, export growth slowed, and loss-making enterprises increased. In 2011, imports of machinery products reached 309.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21.18% over 2010, and a large number of domestic enterprises' orders were diverted. The trade deficit between China, Germany and China was as high as 49.2 billion and 57.8 billion U.S. dollars, respectively. Foreign-funded enterprises are optimistic about China's high-end equipment manufacturing market, such as high-end hydraulic parts, bearings, cutting tools, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, CNC machine tools and functional components, large-scale agricultural machinery and other industries.

Exports of 321.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.49% over 2010, an increase of nearly 7%. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of exports has dropped to 21.38%, a decrease of nearly 12% from the growth rate in 2010. Since the core competitiveness is not enough, the deficit of “general trade” reflecting the actual industrial competitiveness is US$22.2 billion.

Among the 70,699 large-scale enterprises in the machinery industry, there are 5,932 loss-making enterprises, an increase of 1,290 over 2010. In the electrician, heavy industry, machine tools and other industries, a group of the top 100 companies have already fallen into losses.

The risk of hard landing can rule out Cai Weici's three reasons for explaining the proximity of the industry and the removal of hard landing risks: 1. Steady growth is one of the major policy goals of the central government; In the context of declining inflationary pressures, there is more room for policy maneuvering. The silver root has become loose. 2. The average monthly growth rate of production and sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 has slowed to less than 1%. From January to December, the growth rate of 6.44% orders increased slightly from 5.76% in January-November. The profit growth rate also showed signs of recovery at the end of the year. . 3. The convening of the 18th National Congress also requires stable economic development.

"19886" of intelligent manufacturing equipment

In the low-end market of the machinery industry, international trade protectionism has risen. Local Chinese enterprises lack the necessary government support, coordination and guidance. With their own battles and vicious competition, the prospect of expanding exports is not optimistic.

After the financial crisis, the United States proposed to revitalize the "reindustrialization" strategy of the manufacturing industry, focusing on the high-end manufacturing sector, which will have a profound impact on the upgrading of China's machinery industry.

At present, there is a general tendency to encourage the import of advanced equipment in China. The procurement policy for equipment products and the government's industrial policy orientation for the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry are not responsive and coordinated. For the strategy of Europe, the United States and Japan seizing high-end manufacturing, local companies are facing fierce competition and competition from imported products, and the market environment is very difficult.

To this end, Cai Weici appealed to attack the high end. He summed up the content of the intelligent manufacturing equipment planning in one of the five key directions of the “12th Five-Year Plan” high-end equipment manufacturing planning as “19886”.

1-1 goals: to achieve intelligent manufacturing process.

9-Breakthrough 9 key basic technologies: new sensing technology, modular embedded control system technology, advanced control and optimization technology, system coordination technology, fault diagnosis and health maintenance technology, highly reliable real-time communication network technology, functional safety technology, Special process and precision manufacturing technology, identification technology.

8-The main eight monitoring and control devices and components: new sensors and systems, intelligent control systems, smart meters, precision instruments, industrial robots and dedicated robots, precision transmission devices, servo control mechanisms, liquid airtight components and systems.

8-Improve 8 types of major equipment integrated innovation capabilities: petroleum and petrochemical intelligent equipment, metallurgical intelligent equipment, intelligent molding and processing equipment, automated logistics equipment, building materials manufacturing equipment, intelligent food manufacturing production Equipment, intelligent printing equipment.

6-6 Key Applications Demonstration and promotion: Electric power equipment, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, agricultural equipment, resources mining equipment, defense and military equipment, and infrastructure construction equipment.

According to Cai Weici, industry analysis and forecast in 2012: In 2012, the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry will show a low level before the end, a low point in the end of the first quarter or the second quarter, and will stabilize afterwards. The annual production and sales growth rate is expected to be about 18%, the profit growth rate is about 12%, and the export growth is about 15%.

Automobile and internal-combustion engine industry: The increase in automobile output is 5-8%, the output value increases by more than 10%, and the output value of the internal combustion engine increases by about 10%.

Electric industry: Steady development is the main tone, and the output value will increase by about 20%. Due to the acceleration of rural power transformation and the start-up of UHV follow-up projects and the adjustment of the “low-price bid” policy, the demand for power transmission and transformation manufacturing industry is better than that of 2011, but the pressure of over-expansion of production capacity cannot be eased in the short term. The poor situation is difficult to change significantly.

Machine tool, construction machinery and agricultural machinery industry: The growth rate of production and sales dropped obviously, and the increase in output value was about 10%, 12% and 20%, respectively, and the increase in profit fell further. The main reason is that in recent years, production and sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate, and the number of possessions has increased rapidly. In the second half of 2011, sales fell sharply, and the circulation chain inventory was relatively large, which led to the suppression of demand growth in 2012.

Instrumentation, cultural office, petrochemical general machinery, heavy mining machinery, and mechanical basic parts industry: The growth rate will continue to decline in a narrow range and will increase by approximately 15%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 15% respectively compared to 2011.