The new car support policy does not show up in the Chinese car market.

Recently, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce will review the past two years of experience in home appliances and car replacement, study and formulate continuity policies in time, focus on the recycling of discarded electronics and old cars, and increase the recycling and reuse of used products. Level. In response, Huang Hai, former assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce and member of the Economic and Trade Policy Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the old car recycling initiatives correspond to the trade-in of old cars. “The specific policy names and subsidy programs are still being discussed and formulated.”

Maybe it is because in 2011 the Chinese auto market is under pressure and it is too much for people to breathe. It is desperately hopeful that new miracles can happen quickly in a short period of time. So, Chen Deming said one thing, many people in the industry believe that the Chinese auto market. Will usher in policy favors again in 2012, the shrinking trend in 2011 or will have a huge rebound.

What I have to say is that this argument is somewhat optimistic.

It is true that the shrinking of the Chinese auto market in 2011 was not unrelated to the collective withdrawal of some encouraging policies. In 2011, many policies that stimulated automobile consumption, such as car-to-country, trade-in replacement, purchase tax reduction, etc., were withdrawn in succession. After exiting, they have had a tremendous impact on the fast-growing automobile market. In 2011, the auto market witnessed a decline in sales, which ended in an increase of only 2.45 percent in the whole year (an increase of more than 36 percent in 2010). Auto makers of their own brands faced a severe test. As a result, many auto companies have called for the introduction of relevant car support policies at the national level.

However, the new trade-in policy that may emerge today cannot satisfy the wishes of most people.

“Whether it is the old trade-in policy or the new trade-in policy that may be introduced in the future, the focus of the policy will be to solve the problem of emission pollution of old cars instead of solving the problem of car sales,” said an insider of the Ministry of Commerce. The previous trade-in policy was named “Automatic Trade-in Practice” and was issued by ten ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, and implemented from June 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. (The policy was adopted on January 1, 2012. drop out). The specific content shows that the original intention of the policy is mainly two: First, improve resource utilization, reduce environmental pollution; Second, promote energy-saving emission reduction, promote the development of recycling economy.

From this point of view, the old trade-in policy focuses on the “yellow car” (refers to gasoline vehicles that cannot meet the national I standard and diesel vehicles that do not meet the national standard III) and old cars that are “out of service”. . This part of the model has undergone collective replacement under the stimulus of previous policies. After one year, the new replacement group obviously cannot be too much.

In fact, judging from the previous trade-in policy, it will not bring too much impetus to the auto market. Statistics from Sohu Automotive show that, in 2010, the sales of cars directly driven by car-to-country, trade-in, and purchase-tax rebate policies were approximately 3.3 million, accounting for about 18% of the total annual automobile sales; According to incomplete statistics released by the Ministry, in 2010, driven by the trade-in policy, a total of 320,000 vehicles were subsidized by the trade-for-trade system in the country. This figure only accounts for 1.7% of the total annual sales of automobiles.

It is not difficult to find that if no other more stimulating policies are introduced, the new trade-in policy will not change the overall trend of the Chinese automobile market in the coming period of time. Rao Da, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, also said that automobile inventory in the first quarter of 2012 will continue to increase, so companies and industry should not be too optimistic. He predicts that the growth rate of China's auto sales will not exceed 5% in 2012. The reason is: “The downturn in the auto market in 2011 provided the basis for a slight increase in 2012, but apparently there was no driving factor that could make the auto market rebound in 2012. ."

Indeed, at present, the country has begun to adopt a more and more tightening attitude toward vehicle manufacturing. For example, the increase in access thresholds for passenger vehicles and the entry of foreign investment vehicles have been encouraged by the “Foreign Investment Industry Guidance Catalogue (Revised in 2011)”. Deletion of categories of investments, etc., have all indicated that the government has tightened control over the number and scale of Chinese auto companies.

All kinds of signs indicate that there will be no miracle in 2012. For enterprises, they will seize the opportunity of market adjustment, improve and solve problems in management models, channel layouts, product architectures, and R&D directions that have been neglected due to the rapid development of the market. It is a more realistic plan.