The second “explosive” growth of photovoltaic industry is imminent

Recently, at the China New Energy Conference held in Wuxi, the CEO of JA Solar Limited was awarded the title of “Top Ten New Energy Sources”. After the award ceremony, Fang Peng was very calm when he was interviewed by this reporter. The overseas elite who worked in the semiconductor industry in the United States for more than 20 years has been able to participate in the unfamiliar solar photovoltaic industry.

Fang Peng revealed that the sales of this year have increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the capacity will reach 1.8GW (one billion watts) by the end of the year. A report from Goldman Sachs showed that the production capacity of Jingao this year has far exceeded Q-cells, the global leader in photovoltaic cell industry, last year. This means that Jingao has become the world's largest professional photovoltaic cell manufacturer.

The PV industry is undergoing reintegration

Reporter: How do you view the current development status of China's photovoltaic industry?

Fang Peng: First of all, I would like to make a brief review of the development of the photovoltaic industry. In 2007, the photovoltaic industry broke through 1G and became one of the world's most important manufacturing industries in 2008. In a very short period of time, compared to the automotive industry, the photovoltaic industry is more sensitive and quicker than the automotive industry, seizing business opportunities, integrating into the international market with the fastest speed, and showing a large number of listed companies. The Chinese PV companies also stood at the forefront of global competitors at this time. In 2009, the photovoltaic industry experienced major adjustments. However, in terms of global industrial atmosphere, China's photovoltaic industry is still growing. In 2010, the entire industry developed faster. This year can be said to be a year of subverting the history of photovoltaics. Everyone did not estimate such a strong momentum of development in 2010. The forecast made by the most optimistic market report before this year was less than the actual year. 50% of market share. The development of the photovoltaic market beyond the expectations of the entire industry this year also shows that the entire photovoltaic industry is in the early stage of a relatively young age, full of opportunities and challenges.

Now we look at China's solar energy companies, components and batteries have played a major role, its overall status has increased substantially than in the past. Among the shipments of solar cells, the amount of solar energy of 530 megawatts in the first half of this year has exceeded that of leading German companies. According to industry insiders, some data are still further widening, indicating that the competitiveness of Chinese companies is further strengthened in the international photovoltaic industry. At the same time, in the aspect of system components, we see the global leading position of Suntech Power in the economy, and we believe it will soon become the largest solar energy company. At the same time, a large part of the capacity of the first few vertically integrated systems is Chinese companies. PV companies will have great growth in the next 10 years.

Reporter: What is the current market demand for polysilicon? Polysilicon prices fluctuate on the current photovoltaic product market impact?

Fang Peng: When it comes to the demand for polysilicon, the long-term perspective is that the entire industry chain of polysilicon is overcapacity, mainly because the German government opened the European market from 2005 to 2007, which has accelerated the industrialization of photovoltaics. In a period of time, the price of polysilicon products has unreasonably increased, and even once gross profit can reach 92%. This information has enabled domestic large and small companies to produce polysilicon products. However, according to relevant departments' estimates, the company with the best quality and largest scale in 2011 has actually been able to meet the demand for 90% of the entire polysilicon. If the second-tier companies, which already have a certain scale but still need further improvement, are added, their scale has exceeded the demand for solar energy. Then add all the poorer quality companies. The overall capacity of polysilicon may exceed 60% to 80% of demand next year. Therefore, the polysilicon market is also facing the problem of an industry restructuring and redistribution.

Reporter: What is the current status of China's PV power plants? What will happen in the future?

Fang Peng: Photovoltaic power plants in the downstream of the industrial chain are far below the scale of Europe and the United States in the Chinese market. Simply speaking of the polysilicon industry in the upstream and the battery module industry in the middle reaches, China has formed a scale that can compete with other countries. However, in the downstream China's PV power plant industry is still far behind Europe and the United States. In 2009, the global installed capacity was 27 megawatts, and the European market accounted for 29.7%. From this data, China is still in the initial stage to be developed. Although China's PV power plants have experienced large-scale expansion in 2009, they will increase the market by 8 times to 10 times. However, in the long-term, China's PV industry is still in a very early stage. In the next 5 to 10 years, the photovoltaic market will also be There is considerable room for growth.

China's photovoltaic industry has a strong momentum of development

Reporter: What are the competitive advantages of China's photovoltaic industry compared to other countries?

Fang Peng: The solar energy industry is the first time that China has entered the representative industry in the international arena during the first round of industry competition. Although the solar industry is still young, it is China's most promising industry to become a leader. In the solar energy industry, China has a great chance to produce large multinational companies like IBM and Microsoft. Although many multinationals such as South Korea's Samsung have been involved in the solar energy field, they have no substantial threats to China's domestic companies. In fact, the competitive advantage of Chinese solar energy companies is very obvious.

First of all, technically, I believe that Chinese companies are already in a leading position in the world. In terms of technological competitiveness, compared to Europe, we can compete against Taiwanese companies. We are not behind them. China will not lose to other countries in terms of the core component technology of solar cells. The second is the scale,

China has already led the rest of the world in manufacturing. From the perspective of costs, the competitiveness of Chinese mainland enterprises has also been ahead of Japan, South Korea and other countries. The third is the source of capital. China's PV companies have very strong financial resources. They benefit from the strong policies of the Chinese government after the financial crisis, but also benefit from some financing channels. China compares with Taiwan in terms of capital, compared with Japan. Compared with Europe, there is also a leading position in the photovoltaic market in the United States.

In general, Chinese companies are already in a very advantageous position among major global competitors. This phenomenon is very special for China, because China has never had such a position in other leading industries. In the automotive industry, IT industry, semiconductor industry and other technology industries, China used to be "People eat fish and I drink soup." The solar energy industry is an opportunity for Chinese industry. China entered the industry's first round of competition early and has the opportunity to produce large-scale international photovoltaic companies. However, at present, we also see that many large international companies have started to acquire solar energy companies in China. How to win in this game is also a major challenge for Chinese PV companies.

Reporter: How will China's entire photovoltaic industry develop? What are the future development prospects?

Fang Peng: When it comes to the current development of the photovoltaic industry, my point is that the photovoltaic industry is about to usher in its second explosive growth. In the past 30 years of development of the photovoltaic industry, its own technology has matured. After 30 years of exploration, theoretical principles and practical experience have also matured. In 2005, the German government took the lead in proposing a FIT policy. This policy, in fact, hopes that the government can subsidize the photovoltaic industry to expand the scale of the scale, the scale can be reduced after the cost, so that the photovoltaic industry can be transformed into an industry that can compete with traditional power. State subsidies are not permanent. The purpose is to stimulate industrial development, but it has caused explosive growth. Chinese companies also seize this opportunity. Looking back, during the period from 2010 to 2016, "cheap Internet access" will gradually be realized in different areas of the world, including many regions in China. In the coming years, so-called "flat-rate Internet access" will be realized, coupled with energy demand and Configuration needs, the second explosive growth can be said immediately. At that time, the global division of labor of enterprises may also become more apparent. Now look at the three structural forms of Chinese and European companies. The first kind of company only makes the photovoltaic establishment; the second kind of company makes the battery and sets up, the third kind of company makes the silicon slice and makes the battery and makes the assembly again. In the game between Chinese and European companies, how to divide labor is a very important factor, and any change in economic structure may subvert the entire photovoltaic market. All PV companies in China should make adequate preparations.