There is more "uncertainty" in the imported car market in the second half of the year

On August 12, Liu Qinyu, Marketing Manager of China Import Auto Trading Co., Ltd. introduced the features of China's imported automobile market in the first half of this year at the information conference of the Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Market and analyzed the trend of the imported car market in the second half of the year. .

Liu Qinyu said that in the first half of this year, the total number of imported car brands in China reached 294,000, an increase of 92.5% year-on-year. She attributed the rapid growth of China's imported automobile market in the first half to "a fundamental cause and three contributing factors." One of the fundamental reasons is that in the first half of the year, China's economy has continued to pick up, driving the rapid growth of the overall automotive market. In this context, the imported car market has achieved rapid growth. The three contributing factors are: the policy environment is stable, and there are no policies that have a significant negative impact on the development of the imported vehicle market; multinational automobile companies are paying more and more attention to the imported vehicle market, accelerating the strategic adjustment of imported cars and the pace of channel construction. Imported models are more plentiful, especially for medium and low displacement models, which are more suitable for domestic consumers.

In the first half of the year, China's imported auto market showed a "four strong and four weak" trend

Liu Qinyu analyzed that in the first half of the year, China's imported automobile market showed a “structural overall growth”, but the growth rate of different regions, different models, different displacements, and different brands was different, showing the “four strong and four weak” trend:

The growth in the primary and secondary markets was strong, and the growth in the tertiary and tertiary markets was relatively weak; the economic growth in the eastern coastal regions was strong, and the growth momentum in the inland regions was relatively weak. Among them, the number of vehicles on the primary market imported cars more than doubled to 104.9%, year-on-year growth of 94.4%, and the year-on-year growth rates of the third and fourth markets were 83.1% and 70.9%, respectively. According to the degree of economic development, the growth rate of imported vehicle licenses in economically developed regions such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, and Shanghai all exceeded 100%, and the growth rate in Beijing is also above 70%. Due to the large market base in the economically developed regions, the high growth rate makes it the main source of the increase in the import vehicle market.

The growth of cars and SUVs is strong, and MPV growth is relatively weak. In the first half of the year, the number of imported cars increased by 106%, SUV increased by 91.2%, and MPV increased by 43.3%. The increase in the number of imported cars was mainly due to the introduction of medium- and low-emission models (such as ES240) and the market's preference for personalized models (such as MINI). The SUV, as the leading model of the imported vehicle market, has maintained rapid growth in recent years. The share of SUV models in the first half of the year still accounts for 55% of the total imported vehicles.

The growth of medium and low displacement models below 3.0L is strong, and the growth of large displacement vehicles above 3.0L is relatively weak. In the first half of the year, the number of license plates for medium- and low-emission vehicles with ≤3.0L increased by 112.3% year-on-year, which was the main source of the increase in the number of cards sold; at the same time, the large-displacement vehicle models with >3.0L were free from the adverse effects of the consumption tax adjustment, and the year-on-year increase was 54.2. %. Among them, ≤ 3.0L car licenses increased by 144.7% year-on-year, >3.0L car licenses increased by 27.6% year-on-year; ≤ 3.0L SUV licenses increased by 102.5%, >3.0L SUV licenses increased by 71.5%.

Luxury brand growth is strong, with an increase of 128.5%; ordinary brand growth is relatively weak. Luxury brands including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Lexus, Audi, Volvo and Porsche have all surpassed the overall growth of imported vehicles. In the first half of the year, a total of 158,796 vehicles were sold on luxury brands, which accounted for 54% of the licenses on imported vehicles, reflecting the high-end and luxurious features of the imported vehicle market.

In the second half of the imported car market there is more "uncertainty"

Liu Qinyu made cautious predictions on the imported car market in the second half of the year from the macro and micro perspectives.

Liu Qinyu analyzed the impact of the macro level and said that in the first quarter of this year, GDP grew by 11.9%, 10.3% in the second quarter, and 11.1% in the first half. However, the expectation of the decline in macroeconomic growth in the second half of the year will directly affect the imported car market. . In particular, in the face of inflationary pressures, there may be dynamic adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies that will affect future income expectations and thus affect the further rapid development of the imported vehicle market. In addition, the property market regulation and control policy is still continuing, the stock market is still low and volatile, and the wealth effect brought by the property market and stock market will be greatly weakened, which will not be conducive to the development of imported car market in the second half of the year. Liu Qinyu also reminded that we must pay close attention to the “double counter” investigations conducted by China on American automotive products, because the results of this survey cannot be ignored for the impact on the imported vehicle market.

Liu Qinyu analyzed the impact of the micro-level, said that in the first half of this year, customs import volume reached 387,000 vehicles, an increase of 166% compared to the same period last year, far exceeding the increase in the number of license plates imported in the first half of the year; it is expected that the volume of customs imports in the third quarter may still remain relatively high. High level, which will continue to increase the inventory of imported cars. In this case, if the market can not make timely adjustments, it may lead to excessive risk of inventory.

Liu Qinyu analyzed the trend of the imported car market in the second half of the year and said that in the absence of major policies, it is expected that the Chinese imported automobile market will continue to grow steadily and rapidly in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will drop significantly; with further increase in inventory The growth rate of the Daiwa market declined, and it is expected that the competition in the imported car market will significantly increase in the second half of the year, and there will be loosening of overall prices, lower dealer profits, and increased funding pressure. She suggested that dealers should pay close attention to the changes in the imported vehicle terminal market, timely adjust sales expectations, reasonably control the quantity of orders, avoid inventory risks, ensure the healthy development of the market, increase competition, increase inventory, loose prices, reduce profits, and funds. Pressure increases, and other risks, dealers need to formulate response plans in advance.