China's machine tool industry production and sales surge, structural adjustment still needs follow-up

Recently, the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association released the “Analysis on the Operation of the Industry in the First Half of the Year”. From this analysis, the reporter learned that several important indicators such as total industrial output value, product sales value, and profit of the machine tool industry in the first half of the year were presented year-on-year. Substantial growth.

From January to June this year, China's machine tool industry accumulated a total industrial output value of 242.42 billion yuan, an increase of 41.4%; product sales value of 235.87 billion yuan, an increase of 42.0%; industrial product sales rate reached 97.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points; The realized profit was 10.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.5%; the profit margin of output value was 5.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year; the cumulative amount of total fixed asset investment rose by 10.3% year-on-year, a year-on-year decrease of 45.5 percentage points.

In addition, in the first half of this year, China's total import of machine tool products was US$6.88 billion, an increase of 38.3% year-on-year. Of which, metal processing machine tools imported 3.92 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.2% year-on-year. Both have exceeded the import amount for the same period in 2008, the highest historical year.

Exports of machine tool products totaled US$3.11 billion, an increase of 45.7% year-on-year; of these, metal processing machine tools exported US$8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%.

Rapid growth in demand for production and sales In the first half of this year, the total industrial output value of China's machine tool industry continued to grow at a rapid rate. The monthly data show that after February, the monthly output value has stabilized at more than 40 billion yuan.

Among the large-scale machine tool industry, the total industrial output value of the three small industries such as gold-cutting machine tools, tooling and measuring instruments, and woodworking machinery grew at a lower rate than the industry average, which was 31.7%, 34.5%, and 38.4%, respectively. The growth rate of the other five small industries was higher than the industry average. The highest growth rate was in machine tool accessories, reaching 50.0%, followed by foundry machinery, abrasives, other metal processing machinery, and metal forming machine tools.

From August of last year to June of this year, the monthly growth rate of gross industrial output value of the small industry of Jinqi machine tool industry maintained a positive growth for 11 consecutive months, showing a steady upward trend.

In the market, market demand began to slow in May and June after the “blowout” market demand broke out from January to April this year. According to statistics from the Association’s statistics on new orders from January to June for 230 key contact companies in the industry, only new orders for the month of January and April exceeded RMB 3.9 billion, and in May and June they fell back to March levels. It was only 100 million yuan higher than February, which had nearly half of the holiday. Orders for certain heavy machine tools have already begun to decline since the first quarter. Therefore, it is foreseeable that market demand will slow down in the second half of the year.

Association analysts believe that this change is due to the impact of the global financial crisis in 2009, the rapid decline in the pace of development of various industries in our country, in order to broaden the market and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, the demand for high-end machine tools and tools relative increase, The weaknesses of China's machine tool industry that are large but not strong are more fully exposed. The machine tool industry generally feels that only by accelerating the adjustment of product structure and adapting to market demands can there be room for survival and development. However, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the economic situation has clearly improved, and the cumulative outburst of investment triggered by this has led to a surge in market demand, including a rapid increase in the demand for low-end products. In order to meet the market demand, enterprises in the industry give full play to the excess production capacity of ordinary machine tools and low-end CNC machine tools, and the product structure has undergone certain changes. Therefore, from the aspect of appearance, the speed of structural adjustment of the machine tool industry has slowed down. For example, the statistical data of key contact companies show that the CNC rate of metal processing machine tool production is 49.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points.

In addition, starting from 2008, the key linking companies in the first half of the year saw the growth rate of output value and output value of CNC machine tools showing that the growth rate of output value was greater than the growth rate of output. In 2009, it was even more obvious. In the case of a 22.22% decline in output, The output value only increased by 8.29%. The growth rate of production in 2010 was as high as 50.58%, while the output value growth rate was only 11.94%. The factors affecting the output value increase and decrease, except that the output is the largest constitutive factor, the single production value (ie product price), product specification and product level and other factors all play an important role.

According to the survey, due to the shortage of products in the first half of this year, raw materials, energy, and labor costs have risen, and the prices of products have risen slightly. Even if there is no price increase for other corporate products, the possibility of price reduction is very small, apparently in the current growth rate comparison. The price of the product is not an important factor affecting the lag in the growth rate of output value; the key linking company data show that orders for heavy-duty products began to decline after the first quarter of this year, and the long production cycle of heavy-duty products also indicated that the product specifications for the first half of the year The impact of the lag in growth of output value will not be great. Therefore, it can be considered that the mismatch in the growth rate of output and output value in the first half of this year reflects that the product structure of CNC machine tools has not been significantly improved.

Exports are under pressure In the first half of this year, the total export value of China's machine tool tools was US$3.11 billion. Although it has increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, it has not yet recovered to the level of the same period in 2008, which is a decrease of 7.1%. The industrial structure and product structure of the industry's exports are constantly changing, and the trend is not optimistic. The average export price of CNC metal processing machines has dropped by 17.1%. The larger decline in the number of CNC cutting machine tools, machining centers, CNC punch press, CNC gear processing machine tools.

According to the export statistics from January to June, India has become China's largest export market for metal processing machine tools for the first time, absorbing 6.3% of China's exports of gold-cutting machine tools and 9.3% of metal forming machine tools. The United States and Japan rank second and third among China's machine tool export destinations.

From the export data in the first half of this year, it can be seen that the financial crisis has a considerable impact on the overall export situation of the industry. Although the export value of machine tools has risen sharply and is close to the level in 2008, the international economic situation is still complex and the global economy has become substantially better. Still facing many resistance, the export situation is not optimistic. In particular, the export unit price of metal processing machine tools continued to drop, and the profits of export companies drastically decreased. This has become the biggest difficulty faced by companies in the industry.

Today's exports no longer emphasize the creation of foreign exchange, but focus on the adjustment and upgrading of the structure of export products. In recent years, China's machine tool industry has gradually made breakthroughs in the export of high-end products. Especially in the last year, a number of large-scale high-end products have entered mainstream users in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. Such as: exports to the United States for the processing of agricultural vehicles body 3500 tons of fiberglass press; exported to Turkey's CNC 8-meter vertical lathe; exported to South Korea for processing automotive molds Longmen machining center; exported to the British Longmen mobile 4.5 meters gantry Milling machines and boring mills with 260 mm diameter boring and milling machines; exported to Azerbaijan with a rotating diameter of 2.5 meters in a CNC sleeper and a rotating 10 meters in diameter. In addition, there are high-speed gantry milling machines exported to Europe and the United States. Although there are not many companies that can export high-end products, their export value is still very low, and the market is not stable enough. However, this has a guiding role in the export of the entire industry and is a major step forward. Therefore, in the future, the long-term focus of export work will be to adjust the product structure, increase the quality and efficiency of growth while maintaining the growth of the total amount, and avoid further expansion of low-level production capacity to cause more serious low-price competition.

The investment boom driven by the domestic economic stimulus plan continued to drive a significant increase in imports of machine tool tools. In the first half of the year, imports increased by 12.7% compared to the same period in 2008. Changes in the domestic market demand structure this year have affected the level of imported machine tools, and the unit price has been falling. In the first half of the year, metal processing machine tools imported from Japan have grown substantially and have become China's largest source of import sources. The continuous high imports of knives and components reflect the problem of weak competitiveness of similar domestic products.

The average import unit price of CNC metal processing machine tools was US$137,000, a decrease of 44.8% year-on-year. The main reason is that the percentage of imported machine tools imported from Germany, Italy, France and other countries was high last year. The machine tools of these countries are mainly high-end, with the average unit price reaching 213,000 US dollars. The large drop in machine tools imported from Europe this year has led to a significant drop in the unit price of imported machine tools, but it is close to 2008 levels.

In the first half of the year, China's metal processing machine tools imported from Japan increased significantly, reaching 55.6%, which accounted for one-third of China's total machine tool imports. Germany dropped to the second place from last year's import source, and China’s Taiwan continues to maintain its third place.

It is worth noting that the import of cutting tools, machine tools, and machine tool components continued to maintain rapid growth in the machine tools, reaching 530 million U.S. dollars, 250 million U.S. dollars, and 480 million U.S. dollars in the first half of the year, respectively, an increase of 138.0% and 81.9 respectively year-on-year. %, 78.7%. The main reasons for the rapid growth are: The rapid expansion of the domestic machine tool market in recent years provides space for the rapid development of the Chinese machine tool industry. However, domestic high-end tools and components are difficult to meet the requirements in terms of life, efficiency, reliability, and so on. The import volume of products continues to increase substantially. Although the domestic functional component industry is developing at a faster rate, compared with the number and growth rate of imported functional components, and compared with the development speed of domestic metal processing machine tools, the development of domestic functional component industries lags behind. In the domestic market, mid-range products Faced with fierce competition in imported products, the situation in which high-end products rely on imports has not changed significantly. We must realize that the impact of such a large-scale import on the domestically-developed functional component companies is obvious and relatively restricts the survival and development of domestic functional component enterprises. At the same time, excessive dependence on imported tools and functional components is not conducive to the development of China's machine tool industry.