China's mold import and export will remain low in 2013

Last year, the growth rate of China's imports and exports dropped to a single place, and it was directly related to the low demand in the traditional export market. In the first 11 months of 2012, the demand in the European market dropped sharply, the total value of bilateral trade between China and the EU dropped by 4.1%, and the EU’s exports dropped by 7%, and the decline showed a monthly expansion trend. At present, the status of the European Union as China’s largest export market has been replaced by the United States. Sino-Japanese trade also experienced a sharp slowdown. From January to November, the total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan fell by 2.9%, a negative growth for five consecutive months. In 2012, the U.S. economy maintained a moderate growth, but the growth rate was lower than expected. From January to November, the total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States and exports to the United States increased by 8.2%.

Second, the increase in the cost of domestic factors affects exports through the decline of orders and the reduction of foreign investment. On the one hand, the rising cost has directly led to a reduction in orders for export companies. In the fall of 2012, both the number of buyers and the final turnover of the Canton Fair have seen a rare decline. On the other hand, under the dual pressure of slowing global capital flows and rising domestic factor costs, China's foreign investment absorption is negative growth in addition to the slight increase in May, and the annual scale is expected to decline from 2011. Imports and exports of foreign-funded enterprises accounted for about half of China's total value of foreign trade. The reduction of foreign investment in exports has already become apparent. In the first 11 months of 2012, foreign-invested enterprises’ imports and exports only increased by 1.9%, which was lower than the overall growth rate of China’s foreign trade by 3.9 percentage points.

According to the latest trade data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in recent days, China’s import and export volume both hit a record high in December 2012. The total value of imports and exports increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and the export growth rate increased significantly from 2.9% in November to 14.1%. The growth rate also rose from zero growth in November to 6%. In 2012, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 3866.76 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. Among them, exports were 2,049.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 7.9%; imports were 1,817.83 billion U.S. dollars, up 4.3%; trade surpluses were 231.1 billion U.S. dollars, expanding 48.1%.

“In the fourth quarter, China’s exports have obviously recovered from the third quarter.” Luo Baihui, head of the China Manufacturing Championships Alliance, believes that the main reasons for the improvement of exports are: the recovery of the ASEAN market, the rise in exports of metals, molds, machinery and transport equipment, and China’s global growth. Increase in market share. ASEAN may replace the EU in the near future and become the most important market supporting China’s export growth. The export competitiveness of mould machinery to major trading partners all rebounded, and the overall structure of export products was further optimized.

It is estimated that the export growth rate in 2013 will be around 8%, and exports will continue to improve in the first quarter. It is expected that net exports will contribute -0.2% to GDP growth in 2012, and the drag on economic growth in 2013 will be even more serious.

From a global perspective, world trade as a whole is in the doldrums, and it is difficult for China to remain alone. In December 2012, the World Trade Organization's 2012 “International Trade Environment Development Overview” annual report estimated that the growth rate of global trade in 2012 was only 2.5%, and the growth rate was down by 50% from the previous year. The report also predicts that the growth rate of global trade in 2013 will still be lower than the average growth rate in the past 20 years.

In 2013, although the macroeconomic policies of various countries have increased, the global economic development environment may be slightly better than the previous year, and the domestic economic operation will also be generally stable. However, there are still various risk factors at home and abroad. There are still many uncertainties in the recovery of the world economy. The contradiction between lack of external demand is still difficult to alleviate fundamentally, and the risk of global loose liquidity and trade protection may increase. In terms of sub-regions, the unemployment rate in the United States remains high, the financial problems are far from being resolved, and the slow economic growth situation is difficult to change; the unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to a record high in November, and the trend continued to shrink before the continuation of the manufacturing sector in December. The latest data show that The economic recovery in Europe is still difficult to be optimistic; Japan’s economic growth will decline from quarter to quarter, and it will be more likely to relapse into recession; emerging economies will face enormous challenges in combating inflation.

In the medium and long term, with the aging of China’s population and the reduction of rural surplus labor, it is difficult for China’s foreign trade to reproduce more than 20% of sustained high-speed growth in previous years. According to calculations, from 2000 to 2007, the average monthly export growth rate exceeded the average monthly import growth rate by about 4 percentage points. From 2008 to November 2012, the average monthly import growth rate exceeded the average export growth rate by about 1 percentage point. The contribution of exports to GDP has dropped significantly.

Judging from the short-term and medium- and long-term factors constraining the development of China’s foreign trade, China’s imports and exports will continue to grow at a low level in 2013, and the growth rate will return to double digits. At the same time, the order of the "troika" has become more pronounced. In the first three quarters of 2012, final consumption contributed more than 55% of the GDP, while the contribution of net exports of goods and services to GDP was -5.5%, and the downward growth of GDP was 0.4%. In 2013, the net export of this horse-drawn carriage is still difficult. The growth trend from “troika” to “two-wheel drive” of consumer investment will continue to show this year.