Export growth once again out of touch with logistics data

The export growth rate in December is short-term abnormal data and should not be used as the basis for judging the overall situation of the port logistics company in 2013, which is the dominant export cargo type. In the past three years, we have maintained our judgment that the European and American economies are in the “new normal”, and the annual growth rate of port shipping demand will still be inflexible.

The "out of line" between the port logistics data and customs data may be related to the selection at the end of the year. Rising export prices in 2010-11 have led to a longer period of disconnect between customs and port data. Considering that the current price factor has little effect, the export data for January will be positively affected by the export before the Spring Festival. We estimate that the “disconnected” data should be reconvered within a quarter.

In December, the export amount was out of line with the port data. In December 2012, China's export volume increased by 11% month-on-month; it was up 14% year-on-year, and was a significant 11% increase from the nearly 3% level in November, exceeding market expectations. The Guosen Macro Group predicts that the growth rate of exports for the whole year of 2013 will be 8%, and the current indicator for imports from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the Chinese mainland is currently below 5%, indicating that component imports are not active.

Although December's data for many ports have not yet been disclosed, the container throughput of December has seen a decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate has also dropped from November.

Shanghai Port: In December, container throughput fell 2% month-over-month in November; the year-on-year growth rate dropped from 8% in November to 4% in December.

Ningbo Port: In December, container throughput fell by 6% month-on-month; the year-on-year growth rate dropped from 9% in November to 7% in December.

The U.S. economy has not yet had a strong recovery signal According to our follow-up observations, U.S. rail traffic can effectively reflect the domestic economic activity of the U.S., and its change trend is synchronous or ahead of the U.S. GDP changes.

In the fourth quarter of 2012, the rail transportation volume in the United States increased steadily. In December, the US rail transportation volume fell seasonally in comparison with that in November, and there was no significant increase in the year-on-year growth rate compared to November. In fact, in 2012, the year-on-year growth of US railroad traffic volume peaked in the second quarter, showing a slight correction and weakening elasticity.

The amount of Chinese exports was disconnected from the port data. The reason why the amount of exports in December was out of line with China's port data is that this situation has occurred many times in the past three years.

The logistics and port data reflect the physical quantity, while the export amount implies the price factor. The disconnection between 09-11 and the price factor is relatively large.

However, the sudden change of data in December last year made it difficult to explain the export price. We tend to think that it is related to the time of the customs declaration at the end of the year. It may also be the reason why we do not understand. Considering that the current price factor has little effect, the export data for January will be positively affected by the export before the Spring Festival. We estimate that the “disconnected” data should be reconvered within a quarter.