In the first half of 2011, under the background of significant increases in international grain prices and crude oil prices, the fertilizer industry also focused on price increases, while presenting some new features, mainly in three areas: (1) Fertilizer production continued to increase; (2) Urea production declines year-on-year; (3) Costs drive prices up. What will be the trend of the market in the second half of the year? Brass Gate Vavle,Standard Brass Gate Valve,Brass Lever Gate Valve Dazhong Valve Group Co., Ltd , http://www.dazhong-valves.com
Urea profit limit
As of July 25, China's urea wholesale price index was 2333.76 points. The consecutive upward trend since May has slowed down and remained stable for three consecutive weeks.
As regards raw materials, anthracite prices remain at a high level of about 1,400 yuan/ton. Although the coal production is normal and the supply is good, due to the prudent purchase of urea enterprises, the demand for coal has weakened from the previous period, and coal prices will continue to maintain stability, which has strong support for the cost of urea enterprises.
Market demand, due to the end of fertilizer use in the northeast, the amount of fertilizer used in the southern rice is not large, north China, east China will continue to finish the summer fertilizer, the market gradually reduce demand, in August will enter the light storage season.
In the second half of the year, urea companies will face the dual pressures of cost promotion and supply oversupply, and the downward pressure on urea prices will be greater, especially after the implementation of export tariffs in the peak season in November will be more intense. As the current part of the urea companies still have some profit margins, the short-term decline is limited, and it is expected that the urea prices will fluctuate within and beyond the cost in the fourth quarter.
Raw material supports ammonium phosphate prices
Monoammonium is mainly used for the secondary processing of compound fertilizer companies. Diammonium is mainly used for agricultural production. The cost of monoammonium and diammonium is mainly affected by the price of sulfur and synthetic ammonia.
China's sulphur mainly relies on imports, and sulphur prices are still operating at high levels. From the perspective of phosphate ore, the price of phosphate ore continued to rise in the first half of the year, and 30% of the price of phosphate ore rose from 300 to 350 yuan/ton in January to 450 to 550 yuan/ton in the current period. Due to the high sulfur operation and the continuous increase in the price of phosphate ore, the price of monoammonium and diammonium will be greatly supported.
Due to the gradual expansion of the wheat fertilizer and winter storage season in the third quarter, the demand for monoammonium by compound fertilizer companies will increase. Although the price of sulphur declined slightly, the price of monoammonium and diammonium fell sharply. The market outlook is basically dominated by high volatility. The important support levels for the prices of ammonium and diammonium are 2,700 yuan/ton and 3,000 yuan/ton.
Potash maintains high operation
In recent years, the output of potassium chloride in China has increased year by year, but mainly depends on imports, and the domestic price of potassium chloride is generally based on the import price. The price increase of potassium chloride in the second half of the year is a foregone conclusion. According to the current exchange rate, the CFR price is equivalent to RMB 3,040/ton, plus import duties, insurance premiums, packaging fees, and distributors' profits. The corresponding domestic arrival price should be above 3,300 yuan/ton. From the viewpoint of potassium sulfate, the conversion process of potassium sulphate and Mannheim is dominated. Luo potassium prices have certain advantages, but shipping difficulties. The Mannheim process is produced by the reaction of sulphuric acid and potassium chloride. Affected by the increase in the price of potassium chloride and the high price of sulphur, the price of potassium sulphate will inevitably rise in the second half of the year. The Mannheim potassium sulphate price will remain at 3,600 yuan/ton. the above.
Compound fertilizer showed good trend
Since the basic resources of anthracite, natural gas, phosphate rock, sulfur, potash, etc. are all at a high consolidation or rising channel, under the strong support of costs, the compound fertilizer price increase is already expected in the second half of the year, and the compound fertilizer company also hopes to rise. Price to stimulate sales channels to pick up. However, due to the fact that the domestic market has not started in large areas and the downstream enthusiasm is still not high, the compound fertilizer manufacturers and distributors are not brave enough to make large reserves, mainly to follow up with the sales. The demand in the second half of the year is mainly during the winter wheat planting period and the end of the winter storage market. With the completion of fertilizer application in the summer, under the strong support of market demand and the current social inventory is not sufficient, the fertilizer market in the second half has a favorable trend.
Fertilizer market will consolidate high
At present, the prices of various resource materials required for fertilizer production are at a high level, and the company’s operating risks are also increasing as costs and selling prices continue to increase. Both manufacturers and distributors adopt a prudent operation strategy of fast-forward and fast-out. However, under the background of global inflation, the prices of fertilizers in the market in the second half of 2011 are unlikely to fall sharply, and the fertilizer market will be dominated by high consolidation.
January 25, 2019