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Although the construction machinery industry has entered a seasonal off-season and the peak of product sales has passed, this does not mean that the demand for raw materials by enterprises will decrease. Especially at the end of the year, some units will purchase products for the coming year, which will also release some of the purchasing power.
Since 2009, prices of raw materials such as steel, rubber, and coal have been ups and downs, and how to purchase raw material products at a relatively low price is one of the focus issues of the company.
Steel continues to rise higher risk
The most noticeable impression of construction machinery is the texture of steel. It is true that steel is a very important part of the product cost. Any construction machinery product that has more than 80% of its weight is made of steel. After the sharp rise and fall of steel prices in 2008, steel prices did not seem to have returned to a stable state in 2009. Since May of this year, steel prices have continued to climb. In addition to the five trading days of last week, the steel index of the Nisshin Shinkansen fell from 4,050 yuan/ton to 3,770 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range of 280 yuan/ton, with few exceptions. . As of two weeks ago, domestic steel prices have risen for 16 weeks. In this regard, people in the industry generally believe that the possibility of reversal of the steel price trend is very small. The fluctuation of steel prices has made it more difficult for companies to control product costs. Especially for meager products such as loaders and rollers, the price is almost a slight increase in the price of steel. The reserve of steel at a low price is one of the keys to the company’s profitability. Last year, Longgong was storing a batch of steel at a relatively low point, which enabled the company to achieve a certain cost advantage and thus occupied market opportunities.
It is impossible for companies to purchase steels for a sufficient number of years at a time. This urges them to act like short-term transactions in the stock market. They must keep a close eye on steel price movements and strive to buy steel products at a relatively low level, thus keeping costs down to expectations. Within range.
Robust growth in the rubber cycle
From the viewpoint of raw material composition, the second most used product in construction machinery is rubber products, operating equipment in the cab, rubber tracks, and sealing structures... These parts are inseparable from rubber. Although a significant portion of these products are produced by the accessory companies, they are then purchased by the host company. However, the prices of matching parts companies are relatively flexible, and their prices will follow the fluctuation of the price of rubber materials. The cost pressure will eventually be shared with the host companies.
Although the amount of rubber products used in construction machinery products is not many, but its added value generated in the production process is higher than steel, and is the key to determine the product comfort and sealing effect. Therefore, the trend of rubber prices is also one of the issues most concerned by companies in the industry.
Due to the impact of economic stimulus policies, the overall strength of the auto industry, and storage and storage, the price of rubber products has generally risen this year. In particular, a series of measures to reduce production and export controls in Southeast Asian countries, which are the major producers of rubber, have led to rising rubber prices. By analyzing the ru0911 (natural rubber futures for November delivery) index, it can be seen that since April of this year, rubber prices reached a high point in late July and early August this year, and the price per ton exceeded RMB 16800, which is the lowest in April. The point is more than 3,000 yuan. However, from the curve of ru0911, it is not difficult to see that in the past five months, this seemingly steady rise in the price curve has also experienced five fluctuations. Excluding a volatility of about 500 yuan, the remaining 4 fluctuations are More than 1,000 yuan.
Rubber prices have been slowly rising in this ups and downs this year, and it is estimated that this trend will continue. For the construction machinery enterprises, especially the accessory enterprises with rubber as the main production raw material, the periodicity of rubber price changes is relatively obvious, and seizing the opportunity to seek the relative low point is the key to the cost control of the enterprise. For the host company, the price game with the accessory companies has become increasingly delicate.
Coal economy has a significant environmental impact
In the production process, a large amount of electric energy and heat are needed, and a large amount of heat energy is also needed in the production process of steel, rubber, etc. The supply of this energy depends on burning coal. Although these two reasons do not seem to be directly related to the production process of construction machinery products, they are closely related to the production process of construction machinery. Therefore, when almost all institutions count raw materials for construction machinery, coal and coke are included in the list. In it.
In general, the cycle of the coal industry generally lags behind the economic cycle by about one year. Affected by the macroeconomic impact and overcapacity problems, as early as the end of last year, industry insiders generally predicted that this year's coal price trend will show a trend of inertial decline, which will at least fall to the level of the end of 2007. If the economy has not seen any signs of recovery, the coal price downturn will continue into 2010. Specifically, in the first quarter of this year, domestic coal market prices continued to decline slightly due to the impact of both crude oil and coal prices in the international market; in April and May, crude oil prices in the international market rose slightly, and domestic coal-producing provinces restricted production. Insured price, while the coal circulation middlemen are optimistic about the coal market price in the coming months, they will gradually enter the market and coal prices will gradually shift from a continuous negative to a slight slow rise. In June, the price of coal stabilized and fell slightly. Taking the Qinhuangdao coal price market as an example, the closing price of the Shanxi high-grade coal and Datong high-grade coal at 5,500 kcal/kg and over 5,800 kcal/kg of coal in Qinhuangdao port were respectively closed in late June and early July. Stable at 570 yuan / ton and 605 yuan / ton, compared with the price of tons of coal in May, a drop of about 15 to 25 yuan per ton.
It is worth noting that since the equipment manufacturing industry to which the construction machinery belongs is not the main battlefield for coal consumption, the vast majority of coal costs have been calculated once in the supply of steel, rubber and other materials and the cost of electricity, and the price of electricity is relatively stable. Therefore, except for the part that has been calculated, the direct impact of coal price changes on the company is small.
The constraints of the core components are one of the most troublesome problems for construction machinery companies. However, under the shadow of this problem, people often overlook the fact that there is another aspect that has a great impact on the cost of the company—the price of raw materials. Loaders, cranes, forklifts, rotary drilling rigs... These different types of construction machinery products have a large demand for raw materials such as steel and rubber, and raw materials account for a high proportion of the cost of these products.
October 12, 2023