How is the manufacturing industry doing in the next decade?

This year marks the 10th year of China’s accession to the WTO. During the past decade, the Chinese economy has been ranked among the top three giants in the world from the import of the “global order” to the United States and the European Union. The rapid development of the manufacturing and automotive industries is also a witness to this process. However, technological innovation has become a new challenge on the way forward for these two major industries. On the “Next 10 Years of China and the World” forum jointly organized by Southern Metropolis Daily and China Merchants Securities, 21st Century Business Review, and 21st Century Business Herald, leaders of manufacturing and automotive industries and research experts discussed the next In ten years, breakthroughs have been made in China's manufacturing innovation and the development path of the "Chinese model" in the automotive industry.

Machinery manufacturing industry still lacks the "heart" and "shells can do. We can't do anything with the heart." In the past decade, China's equipment manufacturing industry has partially reached the world's advanced level. However, in the next decade, how can we grow bigger? Strong real world manufacturing powerhouse faces a series of challenges. Qu Xianming, former vice president of the China Machinery Research Institute, pointed out that China's equipment manufacturing industry will face several outstanding problems in the next decade.

“At present, China’s equipment manufacturing industry cannot produce large-scale civil aircraft, deepwater offshore oil equipment, 90% of high-end CNC machine tools, 95% of high-grade CNC systems, and robots that rely on imports. External control of factory automation systems, scientific instruments, and precision measurement instruments Up to 70%.” These phenomena mean that the awareness of independent innovation in domestic manufacturing is weak, and high-end equipment manufacturing is almost falling. Qu Xianming said that the lag in the development of key components has also caused the manufacturing host to face a "empty shell" crisis. “Major parts, components and supporting equipment required for high-end main engines and complete sets of equipment are imported in large quantities. Most of the supporting equipment for marine engineering equipment depends on imports. The engines, airborne equipment, raw materials and accessories required by the aviation industry are poorly equipped. 70% of the high-grade functional components for high-end CNC machine tools need to be imported, and all hydraulic components with 30MP A and above are required for large-scale construction machinery; the pump components that account for 1/4 of the investment in nuclear power plant equipment mainly depend on imports, and the major development is severely constrained.

Qu Xianming said that the development of the manufacturing service industry has lags behind and it has also caused companies to be absent from the high end of the value chain. “The service industries like system design, system integration, project contracting, remote diagnosis and maintenance, recycling, remanufacturing, and leasing have not been nurtured. The majority of companies’ service revenues account for less than 10%, and foreign countries have exceeded 50%. Our main business is the low-end processing and assembly link of the value chain."

According to Qu Xianming, in the next decade, China's equipment manufacturing industry will need to change from production-oriented manufacturing to service-oriented manufacturing. Everyone develops modern manufacturing services including system design, system integration, project contracting, equipment leasing, remote diagnostic services, recycling, and remanufacturing. We must occupy the high end of the value chain and promote green manufacturing. The most important thing is to solve the problem of the low end of the value chain. The second is to solve the problem of lagging behind the development of basic components and parts. Aiming at the needs of the development of major equipment and high-end equipment, the development of key components such as bearings, gears, hydraulic parts, pneumatic parts, seals, and large main end parts has been delayed. In addition, it is vigorously nurturing new industries and improving independent innovation capabilities.

The maturity of automobile research and development calls for three major factors: "If there is no independent technological innovation, the previous generation will be the 'porter' and the next generation will also be a porter." Xu Yulin, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Passenger Vehicles Group, said that joining the WT O China car over a decade Industry has experienced the best and fastest development in history. The introduction of foreign capital provides huge opportunities and commercial profits for the Chinese automotive market, while the core technology research and development capabilities of the automotive industry have gradually increased. However, Chinese cars are adults in production management, but R&D is still infancy.

Xu Yulin said that if China's auto industry is to flourish, it must have its own core competitiveness and must have a number of core competitive brands. China is now the world's largest auto market, and its own brand share has also risen rapidly. In 2001, there were 14 enterprises producing autonomous passenger cars, with a market share of nearly 40%. The autonomous vehicle's share was 46%. In 2006, the proportion of self-owned brands was higher than that of joint-venture brands, reaching 55.5% in 2009. With the growth, China’s autos continue to strengthen the R&D and innovation of their own brands, from low-end to high-end cars.

Xu Yulin believes that the future technological innovation in the automotive industry is reflected in three aspects, one is the integration of resources; the second is to promote the innovation of management models and management ideas. The most important thing is the value and significance of new energy vehicles in the future market. Accelerate the development of new energy vehicle technologies, grasp the core technologies of new energy vehicles as soon as possible, and be able to take the lead in the world in the field of new energy.

The third round of easing policies in Europe and the United States may join the world economy as they join the WT O. It is impossible to avoid the debt crisis in Europe and the United States. In the case of the stock market plunged in global stock markets, especially in Europe and the United States, China’s A shares have been dragged down. From the perspective of the global environment, China cannot stand alone. Ding Anhua, chief economist of China Merchants Securities, pointed out that the recent downgrade of US Treasury bond credits has caused such a big shock to the global economy, especially the U.S. stock market. One of the major impacts is market panic, which will bring down other debt ratings. Domino effect.

“Europe’s and China’s problems are two different kinds of contradictions. The contradiction between the European and American countries’ problems is that they need to expand expenditures to stimulate the economy. However, creditor’s markets, especially rating agencies, do not agree with this approach of continuing to increase fiscal spending because they cannot see A feasible plan can reduce the total amount and scale of government debt,” said Ding Anhua. Regardless of the degree of downgrading of U.S. government bonds, it is still the safest debt without options. This is why the more downward adjustments, the higher the price of U.S. treasury bonds. However, if the rating is lowered, it will lower the sovereign rating, as well as other debt ratings, and the market will have a panic-restructuring process.

“The outlook of monetary policy in the US and Europe also makes the market not optimistic. The Fed said that it will not raise interest rates within two years, but the market believes that it is not closely related to the implementation of QE 3. Now everyone’s judgment believes that the possibility of entering the quantitative easing QE 3 phase It is there," said Ding Anhua.

The bull market is expected to start Ding Anhua in the fourth quarter. We think that the market interest rate depends on the inter-bank market interest rate. This is the index of a country's main interest rate and the criteria for defining the national interest rate asset pricing.

“Over the past year, Shanghai’s inter-bank market rate has fluctuated between 2% and 9% annually, while the U.S. interbank interest rate has only fluctuate within the range of 0 to 0.25%. So, observe the situation of China’s monetary policy. To pay close attention to the interbank interest rate market, this interest rate must be within a stable and predictable range, and there can be no roller coaster-type rise, but at the moment we are seeing this as such.” Ding Anhua said.

What happens to the changes in the capital market? Ding Anhua is expected to have opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year. Where is the signal for this opportunity? It is a change of policy. “There are three prerequisites for policy change. The first one is to look at the trend of inflation. We expect inflation to stabilize. The second is to look at the price trend of international commodities. Now the price of international commodity input is falling. Soon, oil has reached the reasonable range of 80 US dollars a barrel.Thirdly, whether the QE3 of the United States is launched, if it does not come out, the pressure on the Chinese central bank to hedge currency inflow will be reduced, and the currency will have a chance to relax.

"Overall, China's capital market has reached an unprecedented value area. It is difficult for you to find such a good value area from the perspective of value. It is only necessary to have a turning point to rekindle the bull market." Ding Anhua optimistically believes.

Guest highlights

He Zhenlin, vice president of Sany Heavy Industry Group: The process of China's manufacturing industry will benefit from urbanization. At present, the urbanization process in China is increasing by about 1% each year. The United States has created two-thirds of the world's top 500 in the process of industrialization and urbanization. In the future China, there will be 31.5 million farmers entering the city, which provides us with a vast space. The goal of Sany in the next five years is to rise from the current 50 billion to 350 billion. The era in which we live has given us the advantage of thick hair and the possibility of overtaking.

Liu Rong, Chief Analyst of China Merchants Securities Machinery Industry: The endogenous driving force of China's economic growth has not ended, and the urbanization and population cycle have not yet ended. Therefore, the investment in manufacturing, as well as the upgrading of consumption upgrades and energy-saving emission reduction equipment, will boost the demand for equipment. The manufacturing market has further grown. At the same time, China’s capacity for independent innovation, digestion and absorption is very strong. In particular, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" includes a focus on the development of equipment manufacturing industry, which gives the market a wealth of opportunities. The future should focus on emerging industries that are growing up, industrial robotics, agricultural equipment services, ocean engineering, many small industries, or small and medium-sized companies.

Yang Xiaoming, general manager of the Delphi Peck Connector Division in Asia-Pacific region: When companies encounter scale bottlenecks, they will encounter challenges such as funding. At present, many equipment manufacturers are driven by the government, and the market is rapidly expanding. However, one day the government will continue to pull it off. When the market faces adjustments, it requires companies to operate in a very healthy and healthy state. There is enough cash flow to drive capacity expansion. As with the issue of talent, domestic companies need to study the experience of foreign companies in this area.

JDpower Consulting AG Yatai Motor Market Forecasting Director Zeng Zhiling: The Chinese model of the auto industry is biased towards the Brazilian model that is open to foreign investment. However, as a consumer product, passenger cars will play an important role. No brand, no network, the future of independent brands may catch up with international brands in technology, but the lack of a huge pressure for the survival of the brand and the network, which is also a very difficult place for independent brands.

Xinhuaxin joint president, CEO lei: the future of the passenger car market, the joint venture of independent brands and private independent brands will have a game process. By domestic companies going out for mergers and acquisitions or foreign capital entering Chinese holdings, the Chinese auto industry will introduce all foreign products and technologies to enhance the products and brands. The strength of independent brands will be strengthened in the future.