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Export continues to shrink
According to customs data, in December 2008, China’s exports fell by 2.8%, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month; imports of US$72.18 billion, a decrease of 21.3%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month.
According to Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, the main reasons for the continued deterioration of exports in December last year were the deepening recession in China's major export markets, further shrinking external demand, falling export prices, and difficulties for foreign importers affected by the credit crisis. .
Researcher Li Jian of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that under normal circumstances, the trend of shrinking exports will continue for 1-2 quarters. "If the degree of deterioration of the external economy deepens, the decline in exports will last longer."
The new orders also reflect the very weak external demand. The latest December Export Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has a new export order index of 30.7%, which is lower than 50% for six consecutive months.
However, the General Administration of Customs believes that although the impact of the current international financial crisis continues to spread, the effect of export incentive policies has started to show. Among them, the overall export of goods with an increased export tax rebate rate rebounded. The total exports of goods involved in policy adjustments in December totaled 54.45 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, accounting for 49.0% of the country’s total export value from 45.8% in the previous 11 months to December. Among them, the export of clothing, plastic products, bags and lamps showed accelerated growth.
In the second half of 2008, China has raised the export tax rebate rate four times successively, and has adopted a series of measures in terms of trade and investment facilitation and the adjustment of the prohibition category product catalog, in order to stabilize foreign trade growth.
However, the Changjiang Securities report pointed out that although the total exports of bulk commodities and labor-intensive products have increased to varying degrees in December, the decline in the total amount of mechanical and electrical products dragged down exports in December. In December, the total export of mechanical and electrical products was US$61.156 million, and the export of high-tech products was US$2994.7 trillion, which was a decrease of 6.648 million and US$4.981 million, respectively, from the previous month.
The increase in export prices of general trade has been basically stable, which has played an important role in stimulating overall exports. From June to December 2008, the monthly export prices of general trade in China have basically stabilized between 16% and 19% year-on-year, still 16.3% in December, keeping the general trade exports at 6% against the trend, an increase over November Accelerate by 1.4 percentage points.
Destocking factors will be diluted
For further sharp decline in imports in December, Ha Jiming believes that the recent destocking of companies led to a sharp drop in raw material import demand, and the decline in international bulk commodity prices caused China's import prices to fall. At the same time, the value-added tax (VAT) transition took effect on January 1, 2009, and enterprises have delayed the import of machinery and equipment to enjoy tax benefits.
Industrial enterprises, especially processing enterprises, have reduced their output, and companies have accordingly reduced imports of energy, raw materials, and semi-finished products in order to absorb inventories. In November 2008, the growth rate of above-scale industrial added value also slowed sharply to 5.4%, the lowest in 14 years. The PMI index was 41.2% in December 2008, indicating that the slowdown in manufacturing growth is continuing.
According to Li Jing, chairman of JP Morgan China Securities Market, although imports will remain weak in the near future, with the gradual implementation of fiscal stimulus policies and real estate support measures, imports of building materials and commodities are expected to rebound in the future.
Ha Jiming pointed out that the reason for the sharp increase in the trade surplus in the past few months was that the decline in imports far exceeded exports. However, along with the company's digesting inventory gradually coming to an end, the future growth rate of imports will be expected to rebound, while exports will continue to decline due to the deterioration of external demand, and the trade surplus will face downward pressure.
China’s imports and exports accelerated in December 2008. Analysts pointed out that with the implementation of the domestic economic stimulus plan, the destocking factor of enterprises will gradually fade, and the growth rate of imports will rebound. However, the growth rate of exports will continue to decline due to the deteriorating external demand. In recent months, the high foreign trade surplus is expected to decline.
February 02, 2024