“Traders are now also scared.” A steel trader in Baiziwan Steel Market, Beijing’s largest steel trade market, drove reporters to the reservoir area to allow reporters to “visit” what they called “the traders "phenomenon.
"Whose people dare to pick up goods, we are running water, the current market situation, whoever dares to take the steel in the hands of a month does not sell, long ago died." In addition to some wire rods that have just arrived, the sheet and wire rods stored in the large reservoir area are "far less than normal."
Another conclusion of the visit was that there was no obvious recovery in downstream demand for steel products, and the traditional construction season did not bring too much noticeable sales improvement to the market. “We did not feel any sign of a marked increase in downstream demand. This feeling has lasted for a long time. We dare not say that it is an order purchase, but it is definitely a quick take-away, never undermining goods,” this year The surnamed Zhang, the manager of the company with a trade volume of tens of millions of yuan, said.
Traders joined in the futures scrambling and asked Zhang Xing, an anonymous general manager, to point to a piece of wire material stacked on an open space. “In addition to these items that were just entered, the vast majority of other items were former stocks and have not been sold.”
“From our point of view, because the futures price has risen too much and is now in a downward trend, few people dare to sell goods to the future. Usually the goods are sold out, and if they are not sold for a month, they are not sold. If you do, it is estimated that you will lose money!"
A Beijing-based general agent of a large-scale steel trader with a registered capital of 50 million yuan also said that “the merchants who realize their business in the market will earn tens of dollars in exchange for a ton of steel, and everyone will rely on the amount. As the profit margin is too narrow, the trade link can't resist the volatility of the futures price at all. Therefore, there is less real trader to carry out the price on the gambling.
However, for the steel futures prices that fluctuate like roller coasters, these are self-deprecating “seeing the fire across the shore”, but the “fish fish” who are also being criticized have said, “There are no shortages of traders in speculative funds that really participate in futures pricing! ”
Zhang, general manager of the same futures operations, said: “Only the market can be said. The manufacturer has no previous weight. If it is a bit serious, it has no use anymore! A lot of money will get together and affect futures. In this case, many traders who do not concentrate on steel trading rely on the steel industry for years of soaking and understanding, as well as holding hands in stock. They are usually willing to have the guts to wager on the futures market!"
"If the trend is misjudged, there is a spot in the hand anyway. It will be a big deal and it will wait until the delivery is completed. If the gambling is successful, the profit will be much higher than the difference of tens of yuan per ton."
"Traders join in pricing and become a force, and speculative funds in the futures market control the market, fueling the rise, is the direct cause of the extreme market prices of steel futures - the futures market has always been the case, if there is no unexpected increase and exceed expectations How can I make money if I fall?"
"Pseudo-rising" also became the last trading day before the luxury holiday, and most of the major commodity varieties in the previous period were able to resume rising. Although many market participants believe this is a “false rise” caused by short covering during the pre-holiday liquidation. However, for steel futures, even if it is only a "pseudo-rising", it can not appear.
On September 30, almost all the contracts in the previous period were up. Among them, the main copper contract rose the most, reaching 4.18 percent, and the ton price rose by 1,930 yuan (which could be confirmed by the “pseudo-rising” pre-holiday judgment). When the Shanghai copper main contract price rose sharply, the total positions did not increase. Instead, it dropped 430 lots compared with the previous trading day). In addition, Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.47%, Shanghai zinc rose 2.82%, Shanghai Gold rose 0.61%, Tianjiao Kaifeng limit, an increase of 6.90%, although the price of fuel was badly beat, but also received intraday red, up 0.80%.
In contrast, steel futures appear quite deserted. The main contract of rebar opened higher and lower, although it was 0.27% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, but it closed at the end of the day and became the only green-recovering type in the previous period. The main contract of wire rods is similar.
It is worth mentioning that since the rebar trend is extremely elusive, investors have once again made the largest lightening of the contract. Take the rebar new contract 1001 as an example. Even in the continuous transfer stage, the lighten-up rate after the close of September 30 still reached 20,400 contracts!
In addition to the "disobedient" traders suddenly participating in pricing competition and boosting speculative funds, the traditional manufacturers of steel prices are "not good", and the confusing future of China's steel market has also made every "super-predictable Both the upswing and the oversold fall have a "sufficient" reason.
In the Baiziwan steel market, not only was a big trader talking to reporters about a major event in the steel market, “the EU imposes anti-dumping duties on Chinese seamless steel tubes”.
According to the news, the European Union proposed on September 24 that a five-year formal anti-dumping tariff be imposed on seamless steel tubes produced in China with a tax rate as high as 39.2%, applicable to seamless steel tubes with a round cross section and an external diameter not exceeding 406.4 mm.
Manager Zhang introduced that the implementation of this policy will have a great impact on China's steel market. “There is a large proportion of China’s steel exports, and the country itself is already in a state of overcapacity. If exports are further affected, it will form a Heavy blow".
A time point that cannot be ignored in the EU resolution is that the above proposal “will be submitted by the European Commission to the EU Council” and “released before October 8th”. The waiting process happens to be a domestic long holiday, and the high uncertainty is forcing steel futures to become the most serious contract item to lighten up before the holiday!
The definition of steel production surplus also appears in the country’s macroeconomic policies. On September 30, the State Council approved the “Some Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industries” by the Development and Reform Commission and other departments. The notice not only affirmed the development and reform commission and other departments on the "iron and steel and other ten key industries to adjust and revitalize the plan", and even stressed that the steel industry and other industries with excess capacity to strengthen control.
Li Li, an analyst in the non-ferrous metals industry at the Qilu Securities Research Institute, believes that the steel industry is facing a process of “de-capacity,” and “short-term adjustments in the industry are inevitable.”

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January 05, 2023