The macroscopic risks of the recovery of the automotive industry supporting the rubber prices can not be ignored

The recent macro-level dominated the trend of industrial rubber. The debt crisis in Europe and the continuing sluggish employment market in the United States caused the market to be filled with pessimism, prompting domestic goods to show a wave of downward trend. Shanghai Tianjiao fell all the way after the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the cumulative decline was nearly 9%. Yesterday, the rubber rebounded steadily, which mainly benefited from the shortage of upstream raw materials and the gradual recovery of the downstream auto industry. However, experts suggest that macro system risks can not be ignored.

Fundamental tight support rebounded on Wednesday, Hujiao oversold bounce, the closing price of 32,060 yuan / ton, up 0.75%. Nippon Rubber also rebounded. As of press release, Japanese rubber offered 353.5 yen, up 0.54%. For rubber's oversold bounce, industry insiders said that it was mainly due to the sharp fall on Monday. At the same time, the sharp rebound of domestic stock market yesterday also led to Hujiao prices to a certain extent.

Shanghai mid-term analyst Fang Junfeng said that the rise in rubber prices occurred in the context of the rebound of most commodities. At the same time, the fundamentals of rubber are still tight, providing some support for prices. From the capital level, Hujiao's position has seen a sharp rise, indicating that some hunters have entered the market.

In terms of fundamentals, the supply of raw materials in the upper reaches is tight. The reporter learned that since September, major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia have suffered floods, flooding has affected the tapping work, and it has also affected the transport of rubber, which has reduced the market volume.

“At present, natural rubber raw material market is in short supply, downstream demand consumption is gradually strengthening, and good fundamentals give strong support to Hujiao's future price,” said Baodong Futures analyst Chen Dong.

The low inventory of downstream plastics companies is also one of the factors that favor rubber prices. Xu Yunjin, a researcher at Xiangyu Futures Tianchi, said that the domestic downstream companies have been using the status quo, leading to relatively low inventory, manufacturers in the National Day holiday before the existence of supplement library procurement needs, which will be more favorable to the formation of spot rubber prices in the short term Support. The global automotive industry is gradually recovering the recovery of the automotive industry is also one of the important factors in the industry optimistic about rubber. It is reported that in August 2011, the total number of new car registrations in the European market increased by 7.8% year-on-year to 787,000 vehicles. According to data released by the German Automobile Industry Association, sales in Germany in August increased by 18% year-on-year, which strongly promoted the overall increase in Europe. Excluding the increase in Germany, European new car registrations in August still maintained a 4% increase.

According to industry sources, the strong growth in automobile sales in August shows that European automobile consumption may emerge from the downturn, and the auto market has not been severely affected by the European debt crisis, which will benefit the rubber market.

Domestically, the situation in automobile production and sales has improved. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of automobiles in August this year showed a certain range of growth both in comparison and year-on-year, and there was a marked improvement as compared with the previous year. In August 2011, automobile sales were 1,377,200 units, which was a 8.29% increase from the previous quarter and an increase of 4.15% year-on-year. From January to August, total automobile sales volume increased by 3.33% year-on-year.

The macro-level risks are not to be underestimated. Although the fundamentals of rubber are good, systemic risks on the macroscopic side have always prevented price increases. Chen Dong said, "If the macro environment does not improve in the later period, I'm afraid that Hujiao can hardly get out of the range shock."

Judging from the overall market sentiment, bearish sentiment has been vented to a greater degree after the crash. Greece is expected to obtain urgently needed loan assistance from the European Union and the IMF to avoid debt defaults. The European debt issue may be temporarily alleviated. At the same time, the US interest-rate meeting is expected to release favorable information. Against this backdrop, yesterday, the domestic stock market rose sharply and led the commodity to rebound.

Xu Yunjin believes that in the short term, due to the release of macro pessimism, and spot rubber prices may be formed due to pre-holidays stocking support, after the fall of Hujiao may form a phased consolidation or even a rally. However, if viewed from a longer-term perspective, the European debt crisis will continue to adversely affect the market. The path of US economic recovery is still difficult. The moment of monetary policy relaxation in China has not yet arrived, and the macroscopic risks have still not been eliminated.