The methanol car pilot program passed

Since January, the methanol spot market has shown signs of recovery, with a monthly cumulative increase of nearly 10%, and the futures market has performed more significantly. Due to the cold weather, the gasification system for methanol production was limited, and some enterprises' production capacity was shut down for maintenance. At the same time, the overall inventory was low, resulting in a periodic rebound of methanol production. In the medium term, the large-scale promotion of methanol gasoline will bring about an incremental market.

For the short-term disturbance factors, the main reason is that the weather is cold, resulting in poor shipping and limited production facilities. In the near future, heavy snowfall occurred in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Other places, and some road conditions were limited, resulting in poor shipping. The manufacturers with low stocks have a stronger atmosphere of pull-ups. The prices of methanol in Henan and Shandong have been raised to varying degrees. The prices of some manufacturers in Shaanxi and Ningxia have also been adjusted upwards. Port prices have also increased sharply, and East China rose to 2800-2950 yuan / ton.

In addition, due to the cold weather in January, the government will continue to restrict the supply of natural gas to the public. According to preliminary calculations, about 1.04 million tons of new natural gas methanol production equipment will stop production or reduce production. At the same time, CNOOC Chemical's 600,000 tons/year natural gas methanol production plant will have a one-month shutdown and overhaul.

In the medium term, the pilot range of methanol gasoline will accelerate and it is expected to become a new growth point. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally approved the implementation of the methanol vehicle pilot project in Shanxi and Shanghai, marking the official landing of the methanol vehicle pilot project at the national level that began in March last year.

In the increasingly severe environmental pressure today, high-cost and high-polluting gasoline will gradually lose its appeal. Methanol gasoline as an alternative fuel is gradually recognized by the market due to its low selling price and traditional gasoline, as well as low tail gas emissions. According to preliminary calculations, it is expected that by the end of 2020, the increase in methanol demand is expected to increase to 100 million tons, and the demand for domestic methanol market will gradually increase.

On the whole, even if the short-term factors evaporate the methanol stimulus, the market outlook for methanol will be better than market expectations after the gradual expansion of the use of methanol gasoline.