The summer has not yet arrived and the peak of electricity consumption has already arrived in advance. As one of the typical high-energy-consuming industries, the chemical industry bears the brunt of the impact of power curtailment, and the related industry chains are suffering from disappointment. Several families are happy.

“Currently, we have not yet reached the point of the most intense use of electricity, because the government has not regularly checked the illegal use of electricity.” Li Ping (a pseudonym), a manager of a private petrochemical company in Zhejiang, told this reporter that the last year was the most severe The local government has been constantly checking the situation of electricity use. “The number of days for which parking is stipulated must end for many days. It will not happen for one day. However, this year has not yet occurred.”

According to him, there are indicators of total electricity consumption in every place in Zhejiang, and the current limit should not exceed the total amount, so the government did not check it. The government does not check, some companies will secretly exceed the limit of electricity, which led to increased power shortages. He said that it does not rule out the next electricity will be more nervous.

In the face of power curtailment, companies usually deal with diesel generators themselves. However, Li Ping revealed that although the local chemical companies had already prepared diesel generators several years ago, they plan to keep up with the changes.

"Thirty-four years ago, the government encouraged us to purchase diesel generators; but now, we have been informed that diesel generators must first apply for a report." Li Ping said that one of the major backgrounds of power curtailment is energy conservation and emission reduction, so even if Buying a diesel generator is also very likely to be prohibited.

However, Li Ping believes that for some chemicals, power cuts can also be said to be double-edged swords, because the suspension of production capacity will result in a decrease in supply, the product prices will rise.

In fact, with the expansion of the scope of power restriction after May 1st, many high-power-consuming chemicals in the production process have seen prices rise under the influence of changes in supply and demand. Two alkalis, yellow phosphorus, and coal chemical industry are among the most Several representative species.

According to the statistics of CITIC Securities, the overall increase in caustic soda was 23.66% last week, 32% of the ion membrane price in East China was 810 yuan/ton; in the previous week, the increase in light soda ash reached 6.84%, and the latest price in East China was 1,875 yuan/ton. .

“China’s power curtailment policy is still in progress, and the area of ​​power curtailment continues to expand. Except for the previous period, Zhejiang and Jiangxi chlor-alkali enterprises restricted electricity, after the “May Day” holiday, Hunan, Hebei, Shandong, Chongqing, Guangdong, and Jiangsu also issued restrictions in succession. Electricity notification, and the scope and extent of power shortages are more than in previous years, this is the main background of the soaring price of caustic soda.” Li Jing, analyst at CSC Securities, pointed out that the price increases are for Binhua, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Zhongtai Chemical, The Intime and Tianyuan Group will have a positive impact.

In addition, the restricted electricity production, tight supply of raw salt, and some soda ash manufacturers to stop and repair according to their actual situation, the price of soda ash also rose significantly. Li Jing predicted that the soda ash price will have a positive impact on Shuanghuan Technology, Sanyou Chemicals, and Shandong Haihua.

“The effect of limiting electricity on chlor-alkali is particularly pronounced because caustic soda is produced by the electrolysis of saline solution. In addition, yellow phosphorus is also affected by electricity limiting because it is decomposed and recovered at high temperatures in an electric furnace through the use of phosphate ore. Li Ping said.

On the other hand, he pointed out that after power cuts lead to a reduction in the production of high-energy-consuming chemicals, the demand for upstream raw materials will drop, which will in turn affect raw material manufacturers.

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October 28, 2023