After the earthquake, auto parts have benefited the most for three days and surged 10%

The aftermath of earthquakes and nuclear radiation events is not even! This rare natural disaster will have a major impact on the global industry. Therefore, we need to look at it from a longer-term perspective. For example, to rethink the opportunities in the automotive industry!

Where is the opportunity! My biggest concern is the impact on China and even global auto parts. We do not know whether it has been noticed that after the earthquake, the largest category of Chinese auto companies listed in the list was auto parts – Wanfeng Aowei rose 10% this week and rose from RMB 13.86 on March 11 to 3 On the 16th of July, it was 15.28 yuan; Dongfeng Technology rose from 13.44 yuan on March 11 last week to 14.95 yuan on March 16, an increase of 11.24%.

Why auto parts react so much? This is due to the expected industrial transfer.

In this earthquake, the biggest impact on the global automotive industry lies in the industrial chain. The interruption of auto parts production in Japan affected the entire vehicle production in the United States, China and other regions. Take the Chinese market as an example. In the domestic passenger car market, domestic engines and other key components still need to be imported from Japan's home country, including Dongfeng Day, which was purchased from Nissan. Tianhe, Southeast Mitsubishi from Mitsubishi, Changqi Cheetah from GAC, Hainan Mazda from Mazda Automobile, and Guangzhou Automobile Highlander Highlander from Toyota Motor. In addition, in the field of commercial vehicles, there are concrete pump trucks such as Zoomlion, XCMG, Xingma, etc. purchased from Japan Isuzu Motors, and Dongfeng Nissan heavy trucks.

The engine electronic control system in the core components of the auto industry currently relies heavily on imports. Therefore, it is widely expected in the industry that both domestic and overseas auto OEMs will review the parts supply structure and reduce the proportion of Japanese suppliers in order to reduce risk. In this way, regardless of short-term, medium- and long-term perspectives, in order to ensure normal production, when selecting auto parts suppliers, vehicle manufacturers will increasingly turn their attention to Japanese suppliers outside Japan or non-Japanese suppliers. Under such pressure, some Japanese auto parts manufacturers will have to speed up the transfer of factories to developing countries.

Where to transfer? If you reduce Japanese suppliers, where to look for replacement? No matter whether it is a transfer or a replacement, it must have multiple conditions, and it is China that best meets these conditions.

First, this region has a large local consumption capacity and can be produced nearby and sold nearby. This can fully realize economies of scale and reduce costs. - China is already the world's largest automotive consumer market and maintains high growth. This is an advantage that is difficult to match anywhere in the world.

Second, this area has greater software advantages, such as sufficient production personnel, sufficient raw material supply capacity, sufficient power supply capacity, and better logistics conditions, facilitating exports to other markets. This point, China also fully complies.

In the short term, Japanese auto parts production will be affected and will have to turn to external procurement (in fact, it is to increase the proportion of original non-Japanese auto parts suppliers.) Chinese auto parts companies with advantages can just catch such a opportunity. For example, domestic demand for substitution has increased, and the demand for substitution in the global market has increased.

It is precisely because of this that Wanfeng Aowei and Dongfeng Technology have been sought after by the market. Of course, after judging the fundamentals - after choosing the general direction, they should also properly enter the opportunity. According to the trend energy and value line of the Gold Card software, we can clearly understand that it was the good time for Wanfeng Aowei to adjust and enter the market last weekend.

After a six-month period of consolidation, Wanfeng Aowei has finally reached the peak line of the value line (13.26 yuan). And on March 10th, the withdrawal after the breakthrough was achieved.